Alamos Gold Investor Day 2026 transcript

Alamos Gold Investor Day 2026 transcript

"Obviously, Island's been a big success story from an exploration standpoint, but there's a lot of success going across the rest of our portfolio."

"Some of the recent drill results we've put out over the past week and the past year, really high-grade intercepts from within the main structure, as well as that spectacular new hole we released earlier this week from the Cline-Pick target. That is an upside opportunity beyond the expansion study that we're gonna be outlining today, but fundamentally, it's that pace of exploration success, which is driving the larger expansion of the district."

Feb 4, 2026, 14:30 GMT+1

Ivanhoe $IVN.TO : Less Tonnes, but More Revenue

Ivanhoe: The New Numbers Matter

Figure 1:Ivanhoe's revenue projections show significant upside from commodity price strength, with current spot prices adding +421M (19.3%) in 2026F and +727M (21.7%) in 2027F versus the original November 2025 price deck.

Following Ivanhoe's updates on Platreef & Kamoa, and given the run-up in metals prices since last year, it's probably a good time to take a look at what this means for the bottom line ahead of full 2026 Guidance next month. The market seems to be valuing Ivanhoe Mines on old volumes, at old prices. The reality is lower volumes, yes, but at much, much higher prices.

When Ivanhoe reset Kamoa-Kakula production guidance on December 3, 2025, the market rightly punished the stock for a 27% copper cut in 2026. But since that guidance release, every single commodity in Ivanhoe's basket has appreciated materially, generating a $421M revenue uplift in 2026 and, at current spot prices, a $727M windfall in 2027—entirely from price strength, not volume growth. There are also a couple of (positive) surprises hiding inside that it seems nobody's modeling.

Let's take a look under the hood.

The Numbers

Without mining a single additional tonne, Ivanhoe's 2027 revenue grows by $727M purely from commodity price appreciation vs. the November 2025 estimates.

 

2026F	2026F at Old Prices	2026F at Spot	Uplift
Total Revenue	$2,178M	$2,599M	+$421M (+19.3%)
2027F	2027F at Old Prices	2027F at Spot	Uplift
Total Revenue	$3,347M	$4,074M	+$727M (+21.7%)

Millions USD. Previous from November 2025 estimates. Spot Prices Jan. 16, 2026. All production figures attributable to Ivanhoe; volumes held constant at December 2025 guidance.

Revenue Mix by Asset at Spot Prices

Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula: Lower, Slower, But Still World-Class

Ivanhoe's "New Normal" at Kamoa-Kakula

Lower, Slower, But Still World-Class

Ivanhoe Mines finally released its long-awaited 2026–2027 production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula on December 3^rd, and the numbers confirm what skeptics feared: full recovery from the May 2025 flood will take longer and yield less than pre-incident expectations.

The New Guidance Reality

Barrick’s Bold -or Desperate- Move: Spinning Out its American Gold Assets

Barrick’s Latest Move: IPO the Crown Jewels—But at What Price?

Following Barrick's (NYSE: B) announcement that the board has authorized management to explore an initial public offering of its Tier 1 North American gold assets, let's take a closer look at what the spinout would look like. The proposed “NewCo” would combine Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, and the wholly-owned Fourmile discovery into what could become one of the world’s largest pure-play gold companies.

The timing is not accidental.  Barrick has been looking at options ever since it unceremoniously bid its CEO adieu--only days after he (finally) announced some good news after years of lackluster returns. Activist investor Elliott Management has also built a stake worth at least several hundred million dollars, putting it among Barrick’s top shareholders and increasing pressure for a breakup into more focused regional entities. 

Barrick under Bristow dreadfully under performed Gold and its peers by a wide mark over the last 5 years. (To be fair, $NEM also lagged after the Newcrest merger.)  It wasn't until the end of Q2 --and after Bristow was ousted--that it finally caught up.

Ivanhoe Mines: Platreef Goes Live

PGM Game-Changer — A Multi-Commodity Transformation in Progress

Platreef is live, Kipushi is ramping, Kamoa is recovering—here's what the next three years look like.

Ivanhoe Mines officially flipped the switch on its long-awaited Platreef project in South Africa's Bushveld Complex on November 19, and if you've been tracking the platinum-group metals sector, you know this is no ordinary mine. Platreef is enormous and positioned to reshape the global PGM supply landscape over the next decade. Here's what production and revenue look like as the mine scales from Phase 1 through Phase 2. Phase 3 and beyond are not covered here. First let’s see them get through phase 2 - which is ambitious enough!

Combined with Kamoa-Kakula (copper) and Kipushi (zinc), Ivanhoe aims to transform from a copper-dominant producer into a diversified multi-commodity mining house with exposure across base metals, precious metals, and PGMs.

What Makes Platreef Unique

Gold $4000 ✅ - (Another 🥳) ATH

Gold's Historic 2025 Rally: 53 54 All-Time Highs YTD

Gold's phenomenal 2025 performance is turning heads, making everyone (finally) start to take notice. The barbarous relic is up 50% YTD and has now set 53 54* All-Time Highs (through October 7 8). We’ve now breached the $4,000/oz. $4,050/oz. mark, once thought to be just a Gold Bug’s fantasy. The combination of macro and monetary policy concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and safe-haven demand—exacerbated by the ongoing US federal government shutdown—, has proven unstoppable, creating the perfect storm for this year’s relentless rally.

The Latest Milestone: $4,000/oz.

Gold’s bull run in 2025 reached historic heights on October 7th as COMEX Gold Futures (GC1!) surged past $4,000/oz. for the first time ever, ending the day near its high of $4,014.60/oz., only to be surpassed today by passing $4050 on the spot, with futures reaching $4074/oz., and notching the 54th All-Time High of an already legendary year.

Orion & US in talks to set up $1.2 Billion fund for overseas mining projects

US' International Development Finance Corporation & Orion Resource Partners would each invest $600mn or more in the new fund — potentially alongside other SWF & US agencies—, as Washington seeks to counter Chinese dominance of critical minerals.

Of the US' $600 Billion contribution, $100MM would be for equity stakes in mining projects & $500MM for debt.

The DFC has already made a range of mining investments, including

Anglo-Teck

"Merger of Equals" puts Anglo in charge with 62% of the new company, after the Keevils won enough concessions to sell the transaction at home…

Anglo-Teck merger creates a 1.2MM Tons Copper producer, combining Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca 2 mines in Chile for significant cost savings. However, other companies like Glencore, BHP, or Rio might make a better offer for either Anglo or Teck before the deal closes.

The new 1.2MM Tons Copper producer's main benefit is

$3500 Gold!

It’s been a long slog, but here we are! 

Gold made a clear break through $3500 this week hitting new highs— over $3600/oz. on the futures—, as lower rates, persistent inflation, tariffs uncertainty and geopolitical tensions linger in the air. 

We will see if we close this week above $3500. A correction could be in order in the short term—it’s up 5% in a week—, as it catches its breath before it takes on $4000!  😉

____________________________________________________

MasterMetals

@MasterMetals

$NDM.TO / $NAK Insiders Dump Shares Before EPA Suit

Northern Dynasty Insiders Dump Shares Before EPA Suit $NDM.TO / $NAK

Just when the market believed the worst of the insider sales spree at Northern Dynasty Minerals ($NDM.TO, $NAK) was behind us, CEO & Chairman Ronald Thiessen decided to upstage the entire board.  On Friday night—precisely at 11:21 PM— he delivered the coup de grâce filing a late disclosure that he had sold 600,000 shares on July 14 at just over C$3.00 per share, pocketing a tidy C$1.8 million, and capping the relentless wave of selling by nearly every major executive and director at the company. The cherry on the Northern Dynasty insider selling cake, this came after market close and with no word yet on whether these sales involved his options at $2.01 that expired on July 17.

The Timeline: How NDM's Insider Capitulation Unfolded

1. July 16: First Red Flag

Massive insider selling rocks Northern Dynasty, as directors and senior management disclose they had disposed of over 2.6 million shares worth nearly C$6 million throughout July.

So, the rumors were true, $AU is out of $GTWO.TO—but who’s in?

AngloGold Ashanti has officially exited its investment in G2 Goldfields, selling its entire 14.95% stake (35,948,965 shares) in a single market transaction on July 8, 2025, at 2.75/share for just under CAD 99 Million.

The shares were placed with two “large European institutional investors”, with one taking up approximately 23 million shares, about 9.5% of $GTWO —just under the 10% threshold where they would have to disclose and register as an insider to the TSX… Interested to know if it’s a passive or active fund (a la La Mancha)?

This opens up the playing field once again.

In February we asked, “Will Platinum ever regain its lustre?”

Well, we had to wait several more months since that post, but I’d say, with Platinum up 20% since then, the answer is Yes!

Gold overtakes Euro as global reserve asset, ECB

Central banks continue to accumulate gold at a record pace.

Bullion accounted for 20% of global official reserves last year, outstripping the Euro's 16% and second only to the USD at 46%, an ECB report published on Wednesday showed.

Central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2024 for the 3rd year in a row. 20% of the total global annual production and 2X the annual amount of the 2010s.

The stock of gold held by central banks worldwide is approaching

Amplats is now Valterra $VALT.L

Anglo American’s Platinum Spinoff is Off to the Races!

Anglo American $AAL.L has now completed the demerger of Amplats, with the renamed Valterra Platinum Limited trading under ticker symbol VALT in London and on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The spinoff comes at the perfect moment just as Platinum seems to be finally coming out of its funk after years of challenging market conditions for PGM’s.

Anglo distributed 51% of Amplats, with Shareholders receiving 110 shares in Valterra Platinum for every 1,075 Anglo American shares held. Simultaneously, Anglo American underwent a share consolidation, issuing 96 new shares for every 109 previously held. Following the spinoff, Anglo retains a 19.9% stake in Valterra, having already reduced its holding through earlier disposals.

On its first day on the London Stock Exchange, Valterra shares started trading at around 29.30 pence, valuing the world's largest platinum group metals mining company at around GBP 7.77 billion (US$10.45 billion)— and Anglo American's 19.9% retained stake at around GBP 1.55 billion. The stock has increased 10% as Platinum wakes up from its slumber.

Copper Treatment Charges plunge deep below zero

The unrelenting expansion of Chinese copper processing capacity over past few years seems to be the culprit.

Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc has proposed negative charges for contracted supplies to smelters in the second half.

The situation is putting pressure on smelters worldwide, with high-cost facilities facing losses and older European copper smelters at risk, while Japanese plants may be sheltered due to their parent companies' stakes in Chilean mines. 

Granted, the plunge in fees is partly due to relatively slow growth in mine output worldwide— coupled with recent mine failures in the DRC ($IVN.TO) and elsewhere— but it’s primarily driven by the rapid increase in Chinese smelting capacity. 

Platinum: Another year, another deficit—but when will the price move?! WPIC Q1 ‘25

Q1 2025 Snapshot

·       Q1 2025 Supply: 1,458 koz (down 10% year-on-year)

·       Q1 2025 Demand: 2,274 koz (up 10% year-on-year)

·       Q1 2025 Deficit: 816 koz (largest quarterly deficit in six years)[¹]

 

Platinum Market Deficit Deepens in 2025

The platinum market is heading for its third straight annual deficit in 2025, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasting a shortfall of 966,000 ounces (koz), or 12% of total demand. This deepening deficit is driven by both falling supply and resilient demand, despite global economic and trade uncertainties^[1].

Platinum Supply, Demand, and Balance: Q1 2024 vs Q1 2025

What ASX African Explorers Look Interesting?

After Montage Gold’s $MAU.TO latest Aussie-listed African investments, what Other ASX African explorers look interesting?

Golden Start of the Year

It’s been Gold’s year! 28 New All-Time Highs so far this year!

YTD it’s Up $675.80 or 25.70%.

Front Month Comex Gold for May delivery finished at $3305/oz., a gain of $182.20, or 5.83% this month.

After hitting its All-Time High of $3500/oz. on April 22nd, it’s only down 2.97%.

Up 43.76% from its 52-week low of $2299.00 hit Friday, May 3, 2024.

Will it be Sell in May and Go Away? Let’s see what May has in store for Gold— a little consolidation would do it some good before charging ahead again…

____________________________________________________

MasterMetals

@MasterMetals

$BHP - Q3 2025 Activities Report

Copper production: 1.5MM T, +10%, Escondida +20%

Iron Ore production unchanged

It's been a rough year for BHP, like all base metal miners, let's see if fortunes change…

CEO expects "limited direct impact of tariffs" but 

Trump & Metals

It’s been three weeks since President Trump announced his Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production 

Trump’s Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production

Within a month we should supposedly get a list of priority projects “that can be immediately approved or for which permits can be immediately issued, and take all necessary or appropriate actions within the… https://t.co/sY4JxkzQKo

— MasterMetals (@MasterMetals) March 21, 2025

Today he issued an Executive Order dealing specifically with Critical Metals.