Ben Bernanke is Every Gold Bug's Best Friend - Money Morning

Ben Bernanke is Every Gold Bug's Best Friend

February 9, 2012

By By Frank Holmes, Guest Writer, Money Morning

After prices fell 10% in December, many investors wondered if the bull market in gold was running out of steam.

That was before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke swooped in with a "red cape" and fired the bulls back up.

Since the Fed reassured the world that interest rates will remain at "exceptionally low levels" for another two years, gold has jumped more than 3%.

UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) described the situation simply, "if investors needed a (further) reason why they should be long gold now, they got it yesterday ... a more accommodative policy is a very good foundation for gold to build on the next move higher."

To gold bugs, two more years of near-zero, short-term interest rates means negative real interest rates are here to stay, and this has historically been a strong driver for higher gold prices.

Bernanke and the Fed aren't the only central bankers in the fiscal and monetary bullring.

Brazil has cut its benchmark interest rate a few times and China lowered its reserve rate for banks in December. According to ISI Group, 78 "easing moves" have been announced around the world in just the past five months as countries look to stimulate economic activity.

One of the main weapons central bankers have employed is money supply, which has created a ton of liquidity in the global system. Global money supply rose 8% year-over-year in December, or about $4 trillion, according to ISI. I mentioned a few weeks ago how China experienced a record increase in the three-month change in M-2 money supply following China's reserve rate cut.

Together, negative real interest rates and growing global money supply power the Fear Trade for gold. The pressure these two factors put on paper currencies motivates investors from Baby Boomers to central bankers to hold gold as an alternate currency.

Central Banks are Loading Up on Gold
Adrian Ash from Bullionvault says global central banks are on a buying spree and they have been since the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in 2007. Central bankers' shift to buying gold was a significant sea change for the yellow metal.

You can see from the chart below that official gold reserves have historically been much higher, averaging around 35,000 tons. In the 1990s, central banks began selling, with reserves hitting a 30-year low right around the time the Fed began cutting rates. Ash says that gold holdings are now at a six-year high with the current amount of gold reserves just less than 31,000 tons.

These are countries large and small. In December, Russia, which has been routinely adding to the country's gold reserves since 2005, purchased nearly 10 tons; Kazakhstan purchased 3.1 tons and Mongolia bought 1.2 tons. UBS says "although reported volumes are not very large, it is still an extension of the official sector accumulation trend."



Not all central banks are recent buyers, though. The "debt-heavy West" has sold its gold holdings, while emerging markets increased their gold reserves 25 % by weight since 2008, says Ash.

Reserves as a percent of all the gold mined has also declined, with "a far greater tonnage of gold ... finding its way into private ownership," says Adrian. Since 1979, you can see the percentage of reserves to total gold has declined at a much faster pace as individuals increasingly perceived gold as a financial asset.

Ash points to China's Gold Accumulation Plan as a recent example of this trend. A joint effort between the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the World Gold Council (WGC), the program allows Chinese citizens to buy gold in small increments as a way to build up their gold holdings over time. The WGC reported in September that the program had established 2 million accounts during its first few months in operation and the amount is growing by the day.

These programs open the door for gold as an investment to a whole new class of people in China but that's only a fraction of the tremendous demand for gold that we are seeing from China.

Gold and the "Love Trade"

In addition to the Fear Trade, gold is driven by the Love Trade, which is the strong cultural affinity the East, namely China and India, has to the precious metal.

In 2010, the Indian Sub Continent and East Asia made up nearly 60% of the world's gold demand and 66% of the world's gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC.

Indian jewelry demand has historically increased during the Shradh period of the Hindu calendar, but last year, high prices and a volatile rupee kept many Indian buyers on the sideline.

If you thought $1,900 was too much to pay for an ounce of gold, imagine how Indians felt when the rupee fell against the U.S. dollar, causing a gold price spike in rupees. Gold in Indian rupee terms rose more than 35% from July to November, roughly three times the magnitude of gold priced in U.S. dollars, yuan or yen.

This currency swing significantly impacted Indian gold imports, which dropped 56% in the fourth quarter, according to data from the Bombay Bullion Association.



"Indian buyers will be back" after they adjust to the higher prices, says Fred Hickey. In one of his latest editions of "The High-Tech Strategist," he cites late 2007 as a recent example when the Indian gold market experienced a similar rough patch.

That year, gold demand in India fell off a cliff after prices spiked more than $1,000 an ounce in one quarter, tarnishing the country's love affair with gold for a "brief period." Fred says their cultural affinity for gold as an important store of wealth and protection against inflation will drive Indian buyers back into the market.

The trend was already changing in 2012, as UBS reported that the first day of trading saw physical sales to India were twice what they usually are, according to Hickey. Although this is a very short time frame, I believe the buying trend will continue in this gold-loving country.

In China, "just as in India, gold is seen as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation," says Hickey. Demand has been growing, especially in the third quarter, when China's gold purchases outpaced India. "Physical demand for gold from the Chinese has been voracious all year," says Hickey. As of the third quarter, China had already obtained 612 tons, eclipsing its total 2010 demand, according to the WGC.

Across the Chinese retail sector, gold, silver and jewelry demand was the strongest performing segment in 2011, says JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) in its "Hands-On China Report."

Growth in this segment far outpaced clothing and footwear, household electrical appliances, and even food, beverage, tobacco and liquor, all of which experienced more modest growth.



JPMorgan says the bulk of the increase came from lower-tier cities "where income levels are rising the fastest and improvements in retail infrastructure have allowed for rapid store expansion."

Increasing incomes coupled with government policies that support growth have been the main drivers for rising gold prices. Take a look at the chart below, which shows the strong correlation between incomes in China and India and the gold price. As residents in these countries acquire higher incomes, they have historically purchased more gold, driving gold prices higher.



We anticipated that the Year of the Dragon would spur an increase in the buying of traditional gifts of gold dragon pendants and coins. Gold buying did hit new records, says Mineweb, with sales of precious metals jumping nearly 50% from the same time last year, according to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce.

This should serve as a warning to all of gold's naysayers.

Gold bullfighters beware - you now have to fight the gold bull while fending off a golden Chinese dragon.

[Editor's Note: Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of "The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing."

He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron's, The Financial Times and other publications.

If you want commentary and analysis from Holmes and the rest of the U.S. Global Investors team delivered to your inbox every Friday, sign up to receive the weekly Investor Alert at www.usfunds.com.]

Ben Bernanke is Every Gold Bug's Best Friend - Money Morning

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Uranium industry alive and well: David Talbot - WHATS NEW | Mineweb

Uranium industry alive and well: David Talbot, Dundee Securities
Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website

DT: Yes. I would say China is definitely the dominant growth driver. Along with India and Russia, China is going to account for about half of the new build in the world. While China has temporarily suspended approvals pending stress tests and further review in light of Fukushima, and rightly so, the country maintains strong support for nuclear power. The country is up to 15 reactors in operation from 11 just one year ago, and it has another 26 under construction, 51 planned and 120 proposed. So China is definitely leading the way.

TER: And utilities are in the game now.

DT: I think the Asian utilities are going to go out of their way to either purchase uranium in the markets through long-term contracts, but probably and most importantly, buy some of those large uranium mines around the world. This, potentially, leaves less uranium for the next country.

Read the whole interview here: Mineweb.com - Uranium industry alive and well: David Talbot - WHATS NEW | Mineweb

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Metals commodities likely to be hot and volatile for some time - INDEPENDENT VIEWPOINT | Mineweb

Metals commodities likely to be hot and volatile for some time

Programs to stimulate the economy are likely to keep commodity prices strong in the short to medium term and net longs have been increasing for the past four weeks as funds increased their bullish bets.

Posted: Tuesday , 13 Sep 2011

NEW YORK (Economic Times) -
Funds increased bullish bets on raw materials for a fourth straight week, the longest series of gains this year, on speculation that economic-stimulus programmes will lift demand for metals, grains and energy.
In the week ended September 6, speculators raised their net-long positions in 18 commodities by 0.2% to 1.28 million futures and options contracts, government data compiled by Bloomberg show. That's the highest level since June 14. Funds became bullish on copper for the first time in three weeks, and wagers on a gold rally increased for the first time since early August.

Last week, Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke said policy makers this month will discuss tools they may use to help the recovery, and president Barack Obama proposed a $447-billion plan to spur job growth. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Index of 24 commodities has surged 22% in the past year as the Fed kept US borrowing costs near zero percent and bought Treasuries in a bid to stimulate growth.

"The printing presses of various governments running overtime is likely to keep the commodity markets hot and volatile for quite some time," Philip Gotthelf, the president of Equidex Brokerage Group in Closter, New Jersey, said ....
To read full article click on Source


Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website Metals commodities likely to be hot and volatile for some time - INDEPENDENT VIEWPOINT | Mineweb

Gold`s journey toward $1,600

Gold's journey toward $1,600

The yellow metal briefly touched a record high above $1,600 dollars on Monday as deft fears continued to grow, but there have been other steps in gold's rise toward a new record

Posted: Monday , 18 Jul 2011

(REUTERS) -

Gold prices hit record highs above $1,598 an ounce on  Monday, buoyed by investors seeking a safer place to store their value as the U.S. deficit talks stalled and euro zone debt crisis continued to unfold.

Following are key dates in gold's trading history since the early 1970s:

* August 1971 - U.S. President Richard Nixon takes the dollar off the gold standard, which had been in place with minor modifications since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 fixed the conversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at $35.

* August 1972 - The United States devalues the dollar to $38 per ounce of gold.

* March 1973 - Most major countries adopt floating exchange rate system.

* May 1973 - U.S. devalues dollar to $42.22 per ounce.

* January 1980 - Gold hits record high at $850 per ounce. High inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution prompt investors to move into the metal.

* August 1999 - Gold falls to a low at $251.70 on worries about central banks reducing reserves of gold bullion and mining companies selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.

* October 1999 - Gold reaches a two-year high at $338 after agreement to limit gold sales by 15 European central banks. Market sentiment toward gold begins to turn more positive.

* February 2003 - Gold reaches a 4-1/2 year high on safe-haven buying in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq.

* December 2003-January 2004 - Gold breaks above $400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.

* November 2005 - Spot gold breaches $500 for the first time since December 1987, when spot hit $502.97.

* April 11, 2006 - Gold prices surpass $600, the highest point since December 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and geopolitical worries.

* May 12, 2006 - Gold prices peak at $730 an ounce with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

* June 14, 2006 - Gold falls 26 percent to $543 from its 26-year peak after investors and speculators sell out of commodity positions.

* November 7, 2007 - Spot gold hits a 28-year high of $845.40 an ounce.

* January 2, 2008 - Spot gold breaks above $850.

* March 13, 2008 - Benchmark gold contract trades over $1,000 for the first time in U.S. futures market.

* March 17, 2008 - Spot gold hits an all-time high of $1,030.80 an ounce. U.S. gold futures touch record peak of $1,033.90.

* September 17, 2008 - Spot gold rises by nearly $90 an ounce, a record one-day gain, as investors seek safety amid turmoil on the equity markets.

* Jan-March 2009 - Gold-backed exchange-traded funds report record inflows in the first quarter as financial sector insecurity spurs safe-haven buying. Holdings of the largest, the SPDR Gold Trust, rise 45 percent to 1,127.44 tonnes.

* February 20, 2009 - Gold rises back above $1,000 an ounce to a peak of $1,005.40 as investors buy bullion as a safe store of value as major economies face recession and equity markets tumble.

* April 24, 2009 - China announces it has raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003 and now holds 1,054 tonnes of the precious metal, boosting expectations it may add further to its reserves.

* August 7, 2009 - European central banks opt to renew their earlier agreement to limit gold sales over a five-year period, setting the sales cap at 400 tonnes a year.

* September 8, 2009 - Gold breaks back through $1,000 an ounce for the first time since February 2009 on dollar weakness and concerns over the sustainability of the economic recovery.

* December 1, 2009 - Gold climbs above $1,200 an ounce for the first time as the dollar drops.

* December 3, 2009 - Gold hits record high at $1,226.10 an ounce, with dollar weakness and expectations for central banks to diversify reserves into gold driving prices higher.

* May 11, 2010 - Gold reaches fresh record high above $1,230 an ounce as fears over the contagion of debt issues in the euro zone fuel safe-haven buying.

* June 21, 2010 - Gold jumps to a new high at $1,264.90 an ounce as underlying fears over financial market stability and sovereign risk combine with dollar weakness to push the metal through resistance at its previous high.

* Sept 14, 2010 - Gold climbs back to record highs, this time at $1,274.75, as global markets reflect renewed uncertainty on the economic outlook.

* Sept 16-22, 2010 - Gold hits record highs for five successive sessions, peaking at $1,296.10, as investors flock to bullion after the Fed signals it may consider further quantitative easing, weakening the dollar and raising fears over future inflation.

* Sept 27 - Spot gold prices touch the $1,300 an ounce mark for the first time.

* Oct 7 - Gold rallies to a record high above $1,360 an ounce as the dollar comes under pressure from building expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to take extra measures to keep interest rates low and prop up the economy.

* Oct 13 - Gold jumped to record highs near $1,375 an ounce as the dollar continued to languish, with the U.S. unit coming under pressure after minutes from the Fed's September meeting signaled the U.S. economy may need further stimulus.

* Nov 8 - Gold prices break through the $1,400 an ounce mark for the first time as haven buying prompted by renewed budget problems in Ireland more than offset a sharp dollar bounce.

* Dec 7 - Gold reaches a fresh record high above $1,425 an ounce, driven by fund buying ahead of year-end, jitters over the euro zone debt crisis and speculation for further U.S. monetary easing.

* January 2011 - Gold prices fall more than 6 percent in their worst monthly performance in over a year as a revival in risk appetite diverts investment to higher-yielding assets.

* March 1 - Gold recovers to hit a record high at $1,434.65 an ounce as unrest in Tunisia and Egypt spreads across the Middle East and North Africa, boosting oil prices.

* March 7 - Gold extends record highs to $1,444.40 an ounce as oil prices hit their highest in 2-1/2 years after protests are quashed in Saudi Arabia and as violence in Libya rages.

* March 24 - The resignation of Portuguese prime minister Jose Socrates pushes the euro zone debt crisis back to center stage, lifting gold prices to a record above $1,447 an ounce.

* April 7 - Gold prices extended their record highs toward $1,465 an ounce after the European Central Bank cast doubts over expectations for interest rate rises, while unrest in the Middle East encouraged safe-haven buying.

* July 18 - Gold hit a record of $1,598.41 an ounce, on track for an eleventh straight day of gains, on persistent worries about euro zone debt crisis spreading and a growing threat of a U.S. government default.

(Compiled by Atul Prakash, Jan Harvey, Amanda Cooper and Rujun Shen; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

"Gold's journey toward $1,600
The yellow metal briefly touched a record high above $1,600 dollars on Monday as deft fears continued to grow, but there have been other steps in gold's rise toward a new record"

Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website Gold`s journey toward $1,600 - FAST NEWS | Mineweb:

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Mongolia, the next commodity powerhouse (?)

Mongolia is going to be a major future supplier of commodities from coal through gold to copper – and maybe even crude oil. But how soon will this landlocked country with a population of 3m really begin delivering these resources to the world in a significant, market-moving way?

While at first Mongolia seemed to be the poster child for liberalization, in the last several years that has changed as the population has demanded a larger share of the resource bonanza to come - Ivanhoe Mines and Rio Tinto's Copper-Gold behemoth, Oyu Tolgoi, being the headline project. While justifiable to a certain degree, in reality it has meant many of the mining projects on the drawing board have been delayed. The China issue remains a particularly prickly subject, as the FT notes in the article below,

Although Mongolia is located right next to its biggest customer, China, their history of rivalry makes Mongolia suspicious of its southern neighbour. And capricious politics – parliament has tried to oust Dashdorj Zorigt, minister for mineral resources and energy, twice this year – mean that economic logic is sometimes subordinate to politics or nationalism.

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs | 05 April 2011 | www.commodityonline.com

below are some excerpts from Jim Rogers interview:

Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs

Chinese economy:

There is some overheating and inflation

setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way

China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Europe:

I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt.

Following is an interview that The Daily Bell had with Jim Rogers:

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
05 April 2011 | www.commodityonline.com

Daily Bell: We've interviewed you before. Thanks for spending some time with us once again. Let's jump right in. What do you think of the Chinese economy these days?

Jim Rogers: There is some overheating and inflation, which they are wisely trying to cool – especially in urban, coastal real estate. They have huge reserves so will suffer less than others in any coming downturn.

Daily Bell: Is price inflation more or less of a problem?

Jim Rogers: More. At least they acknowledge inflation and are attacking it. Some countries still try denying there is inflation worldwide. The US is even pouring gasoline on these inflationary trends with more money printing instead of trying to extinguish the problem.

Daily Bell: Is China headed for a setback as you suggested last time we spoke?

Jim Rogers: Did I say a setback or a setback in real estate speculation? I think you will find it was the latter. Yes, the setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way.

Daily Bell: They are allowing the yuan to float upward. Good move?

Jim Rogers: Yes, but I would make it freely convertible faster than they are.

Daily Bell: Will that squeeze price inflation?

Jim Rogers: It will help.

Daily Bell: Why so many empty cities and malls in China? Does the government have plans to move rural folk into cities en masse?

Jim Rogers: That is a bit exaggerated. China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Daily Bell: Is such centralized planning good for the economy?

Jim Rogers: No. Centralized planning is rarely, if ever, good for the economy. But the kind of construction you are describing is at the provincial level – not the national level.

Daily Bell: The Chinese government is worried about unrest given what is occurring in the Middle East. Should they be?

Jim Rogers: We all should be. There is going to be more social unrest worldwide including the US. More governments will fall. More countries will fail.

Daily Bell: Are they still on track to be the world's biggest economy over the next decade?

Jim Rogers: Perhaps not that soon, but eventually.

Daily Bell: Any thoughts on Japan? Why haven't they been able to get the economy moving after 30 years? Will the earthquake finally jump-start the economy or is that an erroneous application of the broken-windows fallacy?

Jim Rogers: It has been 20 years. They refused to let people fail and go bankrupt. They constantly propped up zombie companies. The earthquake will help some sectors for a while, but there are serious demographic and debt problems down the road.

Daily Bell: The Japanese were going to buy PIGS bonds. What will happen now? Does that only leave China?

Jim Rogers: Obviously the Japanese have other things on their mind right now. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt. The thing that the world needs is for somebody to acknowledge reality and start taking haircuts.