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Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts

August 21, 2024

#Gold keeps rising


As gold passes $2500/oz. reaching all-time highs, everyone wonders, will the rally continue?

The short and long of it is, Yes.

It's financial demand that will be the main driver:

Gold is under-owned.

May 7, 2015

#Gundlach Reiterates $1400 #Gold Target as negative rates persist

Gundlach Reiterates $1400 Gold Target

Via Energy and Gold.com:

Famed bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach gave a presentation at the New York Yacht Club today in which he reiterated a $1,400 target for gold by year end. From what I gather Gundlach has two primary tenets to his bullish gold thesis:

  • Negative interest rates in Europe will make gold very attractive relative to holding negative yielding cash or extremely low yielding sovereign debt
  • Fears of Fed rate hikes have been weighing on gold for some time and these fears are overblown because the US economy isn’t yet strong enough for the Fed to embark upon a protracted rate-hike cycle
One slide in particular caught our eye as being especially noteworthy:

Sovereign_Net_Issuance

Including central bank purchases both the euro area and Japan are shrinking the amount of sovereign debt in the market. This is quite significant and helps to explain why eurozone sovereign yields are at historically low levels. Gundlach is right, gold looks very attractive compared to holding euro cash or euro denominated sovereign debt. I wonder when the market is going to catch on….


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@MasterMetals

July 18, 2011

Gold`s journey toward $1,600


Gold's journey toward $1,600

The yellow metal briefly touched a record high above $1,600 dollars on Monday as deft fears continued to grow, but there have been other steps in gold's rise toward a new record

Posted: Monday , 18 Jul 2011


(REUTERS) -
Gold prices hit record highs above $1,598 an ounce on  Monday, buoyed by investors seeking a safer place to store their value as the U.S. deficit talks stalled and euro zone debt crisis continued to unfold.

Following are key dates in gold's trading history since the early 1970s:
* August 1971 - U.S. President Richard Nixon takes the dollar off the gold standard, which had been in place with minor modifications since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 fixed the conversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at $35.
* August 1972 - The United States devalues the dollar to $38 per ounce of gold.
* March 1973 - Most major countries adopt floating exchange rate system.
* May 1973 - U.S. devalues dollar to $42.22 per ounce.
* January 1980 - Gold hits record high at $850 per ounce. High inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution prompt investors to move into the metal.
* August 1999 - Gold falls to a low at $251.70 on worries about central banks reducing reserves of gold bullion and mining companies selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.
* October 1999 - Gold reaches a two-year high at $338 after agreement to limit gold sales by 15 European central banks. Market sentiment toward gold begins to turn more positive.
* February 2003 - Gold reaches a 4-1/2 year high on safe-haven buying in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq.
* December 2003-January 2004 - Gold breaks above $400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.
* November 2005 - Spot gold breaches $500 for the first time since December 1987, when spot hit $502.97.
* April 11, 2006 - Gold prices surpass $600, the highest point since December 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and geopolitical worries.
* May 12, 2006 - Gold prices peak at $730 an ounce with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
* June 14, 2006 - Gold falls 26 percent to $543 from its 26-year peak after investors and speculators sell out of commodity positions.
* November 7, 2007 - Spot gold hits a 28-year high of $845.40 an ounce.
* January 2, 2008 - Spot gold breaks above $850.
* March 13, 2008 - Benchmark gold contract trades over $1,000 for the first time in U.S. futures market.
* March 17, 2008 - Spot gold hits an all-time high of $1,030.80 an ounce. U.S. gold futures touch record peak of $1,033.90.
* September 17, 2008 - Spot gold rises by nearly $90 an ounce, a record one-day gain, as investors seek safety amid turmoil on the equity markets.
* Jan-March 2009 - Gold-backed exchange-traded funds report record inflows in the first quarter as financial sector insecurity spurs safe-haven buying. Holdings of the largest, the SPDR Gold Trust, rise 45 percent to 1,127.44 tonnes.
* February 20, 2009 - Gold rises back above $1,000 an ounce to a peak of $1,005.40 as investors buy bullion as a safe store of value as major economies face recession and equity markets tumble.
* April 24, 2009 - China announces it has raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003 and now holds 1,054 tonnes of the precious metal, boosting expectations it may add further to its reserves.
* August 7, 2009 - European central banks opt to renew their earlier agreement to limit gold sales over a five-year period, setting the sales cap at 400 tonnes a year.
* September 8, 2009 - Gold breaks back through $1,000 an ounce for the first time since February 2009 on dollar weakness and concerns over the sustainability of the economic recovery.
* December 1, 2009 - Gold climbs above $1,200 an ounce for the first time as the dollar drops.
* December 3, 2009 - Gold hits record high at $1,226.10 an ounce, with dollar weakness and expectations for central banks to diversify reserves into gold driving prices higher.
* May 11, 2010 - Gold reaches fresh record high above $1,230 an ounce as fears over the contagion of debt issues in the euro zone fuel safe-haven buying.
* June 21, 2010 - Gold jumps to a new high at $1,264.90 an ounce as underlying fears over financial market stability and sovereign risk combine with dollar weakness to push the metal through resistance at its previous high.
* Sept 14, 2010 - Gold climbs back to record highs, this time at $1,274.75, as global markets reflect renewed uncertainty on the economic outlook.
* Sept 16-22, 2010 - Gold hits record highs for five successive sessions, peaking at $1,296.10, as investors flock to bullion after the Fed signals it may consider further quantitative easing, weakening the dollar and raising fears over future inflation.
* Sept 27 - Spot gold prices touch the $1,300 an ounce mark for the first time.
* Oct 7 - Gold rallies to a record high above $1,360 an ounce as the dollar comes under pressure from building expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to take extra measures to keep interest rates low and prop up the economy.
* Oct 13 - Gold jumped to record highs near $1,375 an ounce as the dollar continued to languish, with the U.S. unit coming under pressure after minutes from the Fed's September meeting signaled the U.S. economy may need further stimulus.
* Nov 8 - Gold prices break through the $1,400 an ounce mark for the first time as haven buying prompted by renewed budget problems in Ireland more than offset a sharp dollar bounce.
* Dec 7 - Gold reaches a fresh record high above $1,425 an ounce, driven by fund buying ahead of year-end, jitters over the euro zone debt crisis and speculation for further U.S. monetary easing.
* January 2011 - Gold prices fall more than 6 percent in their worst monthly performance in over a year as a revival in risk appetite diverts investment to higher-yielding assets.
* March 1 - Gold recovers to hit a record high at $1,434.65 an ounce as unrest in Tunisia and Egypt spreads across the Middle East and North Africa, boosting oil prices.
* March 7 - Gold extends record highs to $1,444.40 an ounce as oil prices hit their highest in 2-1/2 years after protests are quashed in Saudi Arabia and as violence in Libya rages.
* March 24 - The resignation of Portuguese prime minister Jose Socrates pushes the euro zone debt crisis back to center stage, lifting gold prices to a record above $1,447 an ounce.
* April 7 - Gold prices extended their record highs toward $1,465 an ounce after the European Central Bank cast doubts over expectations for interest rate rises, while unrest in the Middle East encouraged safe-haven buying.
* July 18 - Gold hit a record of $1,598.41 an ounce, on track for an eleventh straight day of gains, on persistent worries about euro zone debt crisis spreading and a growing threat of a U.S. government default.
(Compiled by Atul Prakash, Jan Harvey, Amanda Cooper and Rujun Shen; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

"Gold's journey toward $1,600
The yellow metal briefly touched a record high above $1,600 dollars on Monday as deft fears continued to grow, but there have been other steps in gold's rise toward a new record"

Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website Gold`s journey toward $1,600 - FAST NEWS | Mineweb:


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May 23, 2011

Euro Price of Gold Hits Record High As "Debt Woes Spreading" Beyond Greece - Gold Matters


THIS STORY IS STILL DEVELOPING.... AS REALITY STEPS IN...
Monday, May 23, 2011 8:55 AM EDT

Euro Price of Gold Hits Record High As "Debt Woes Spreading" Beyond Greece

By Ben Traynor
The Dollar price to Buy Gold was trading in a tight range around $1510 on Monday morning in London - a 1% gain on the start of last week - as stocks and commodities fell after ratings agencies gave fresh warnings on Eurozone sovereign debt.
In Germany and Spain, meantime governing parties suffered local election defeats.
The Euro lost nearly 1% against the US Dollar in early trade, dropping through the $1.40 mark.
The Gold Price in Euros shot to a new all-time high of €34,746 per kilogram (€1080 per ounce) - 1% above Friday's close. The Euro price to Buy Gold has risen 16% since this time last year.
Silver Prices meanwhile remained flat - trading just under $35 per ounce, virtually unchanged from two weeks ago.
"One problem for the struggling euro zone countries is that they've given up currency flexibility," says Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Standard Bank. "Without the ability to lower interest rates or ease fiscal policy, the inability to devalue makes things tough."
"The week is starting in a decidedly fearful mode, with the spillover from Friday's concerns about Greek debt restructuring still dominating markets," Société Générale's head of foreign-exchange strategy Kit Juckes.
The yield on Greek sovereign debt set a new all-time high of 17% on Monday morning.
"Greece risks a sovereign default," warned French finance minister Christine Lagarde - favorite to be the next head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - warned on Friday. "Finance ministers have expressed strong doubts about [Greece's] sluggish progress."
"The Euro is likely to search for the bottom this week as Greek debt woes appear to be spreading to other countries," reckons Mizuho Trust and Banking trader Yoshio Yoshida.
"If the crisis starts to involve other nations beyond Greece, then we could see gold heading to a new record high," Ong Yi Ling, Singapore-based investment analyst at Phillip Futures told Reuters.
Ratings agency Fitch cut its rating on Greek sovereign debt by three grades on Friday, to BB+ to B+. On the same day, Standard & Poor's changed its outlook for Italy's debt from stable to negative, citing "potential political gridlock" and "weak" growth prospects.
Over in Spain, meantime, early results show the ruling left-wing Socialist party is heading for heavy losses in Sunday's regional elections, while tens of thousands continue to pack city streets across the country to protest against unemployment. The opposition Popular party looks to have gained 37.5% of the vote - 10% more than the Socialists.
"Should [Spain] be under severe stress, the capacity of Europe to deal with it would be put in question," says Laurent Bilke, senior economist at Nomura. "Rather than the local elections, it is more the resemblance of Madrid's Plaza de la Puerta del Sol to Cairo's Tahrir Square which is disturbing for the markets."
German chancellor Angela Merkel's party also suffered a local election defeat at the weekend, with the center-right Christian Democratic Union party finishing behind the Greens in Bremen - the first time this has happened in a state election.
Euro Price of Gold Hits Record High As "Debt Woes Spreading" Beyond Greece - Gold Matters

The MasterMetals Blog

April 5, 2011

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs | 05 April 2011 | www.commodityonline.com

below are some excerpts from Jim Rogers interview:
Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
Chinese economy:
There is some overheating and inflation
setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way
China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.
Europe:
I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt.
Following is an interview that The Daily Bell had with Jim Rogers:

Jim Rogers: Dollar will be debased; gold and silver to hit new highs
05 April 2011 | www.commodityonline.com

Daily Bell: We've interviewed you before. Thanks for spending some time with us once again. Let's jump right in. What do you think of the Chinese economy these days?

Jim Rogers: There is some overheating and inflation, which they are wisely trying to cool – especially in urban, coastal real estate. They have huge reserves so will suffer less than others in any coming downturn.

Daily Bell: Is price inflation more or less of a problem?

Jim Rogers: More. At least they acknowledge inflation and are attacking it. Some countries still try denying there is inflation worldwide. The US is even pouring gasoline on these inflationary trends with more money printing instead of trying to extinguish the problem.

Daily Bell: Is China headed for a setback as you suggested last time we spoke?

Jim Rogers: Did I say a setback or a setback in real estate speculation? I think you will find it was the latter. Yes, the setback in urban, coastal real estate is under way.

Daily Bell: They are allowing the yuan to float upward. Good move?

Jim Rogers: Yes, but I would make it freely convertible faster than they are.

Daily Bell: Will that squeeze price inflation?

Jim Rogers: It will help.

Daily Bell: Why so many empty cities and malls in China? Does the government have plans to move rural folk into cities en masse?

Jim Rogers: That is a bit exaggerated. China has been overbuilding ever since I have been visiting. There is at least eventual demand for much of it, but that does not preclude some bankruptcies in the future.

Daily Bell: Is such centralized planning good for the economy?

Jim Rogers: No. Centralized planning is rarely, if ever, good for the economy. But the kind of construction you are describing is at the provincial level – not the national level.

Daily Bell: The Chinese government is worried about unrest given what is occurring in the Middle East. Should they be?

Jim Rogers: We all should be. There is going to be more social unrest worldwide including the US. More governments will fall. More countries will fail.

Daily Bell: Are they still on track to be the world's biggest economy over the next decade?

Jim Rogers: Perhaps not that soon, but eventually.

Daily Bell: Any thoughts on Japan? Why haven't they been able to get the economy moving after 30 years? Will the earthquake finally jump-start the economy or is that an erroneous application of the broken-windows fallacy?

Jim Rogers: It has been 20 years. They refused to let people fail and go bankrupt. They constantly propped up zombie companies. The earthquake will help some sectors for a while, but there are serious demographic and debt problems down the road.

Daily Bell: The Japanese were going to buy PIGS bonds. What will happen now? Does that only leave China?

Jim Rogers: Obviously the Japanese have other things on their mind right now. I think we are getting closer and closer to the point where someone in Europe is going to have to take some losses, whether it's the banks or the countries, but somebody has to acknowledge that they are bankrupt. The thing that the world needs is for somebody to acknowledge reality and start taking haircuts.


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