The current pullback in the precious metals sector is a buying opportunity. Since trading at a closing high of $2,064 an ounce on August 6, gold bullion has declined 8.34% as of this writing.1 Gold mining shares have followed suit, declining 9.26% since the August high.2 It is possible that gold and related mining shares could continue to chop sideways to lower until the U.S. presidential election results are known and even into yearend as the implications are sorted out. Whatever the electoral outcome, the path towards monetary debasement is bipartisan. It is crucial for investors to focus on the long-term trend and to avoid the distractions of short-term timing considerations.
The very strong investment fundamentals for gold and gold mining shares are based on what has been a slow irreversible drift towards significant U.S. dollar (USD) devaluation. Paper assets, including equities, bonds and currencies, have underperformed the dollar gold-price since 2000, the dawn of radical monetary experimentation by central bankers. Until recently, gold's strength has attracted little notice from mainstream investors. Widespread disinterest can perhaps be ascribed to the stealthy, long-term character of gold's outperformance. In addition, the absolute performance of equities and bonds has been positive over the past two decades, so there has been little incentive to look elsewhere.
Figure 1. Gold vs. Stocks, Bonds and USD
Relative Returns for Period from 12/31/1999-9/30/2020
Source: Bloomberg. Period from 12/31/1999-9/30/2020. Gold is measured by GOLDS Comdty Index; S&P 500 TR is measured by the SPX; US Agg Bond Index is measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD (LBUSTRUU Index); and the U.S. Dollar is measured by DXY Curncy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.
