2013 #BP World #Energy #Outlook 2030 Part 2 - Supply

Asia Pacific will account for nearly half of global growth. Together Shale Oil & Gas will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.

The latest BP World Energy Outlook 2030 is out.  Here are some excerpts from the report.

Asia Pacific for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030

World primary energy production growth matches consumption, growing by 1.6% p.a. from 2011 to 2030.
As is the case for energy consumption, growth in production will be dominated by the non-OECD countries, which will account for 78% of the world’s increase.These countries will supply 71% of global energy production in 2030, up from 69% in 2011 and 58% in 1990.
The Asia Pacific region, the largest regional energy producer, shows the most rapid growth rate (2.2% p.a.), due to large indigenous coal production, and accounts for 48% of global energy production growth. The region provides 35% of global energy production by 2030. The Middle East and North America contribute the next largest increments for supply growth; and North America remains the second largest regional energy producer.
Energy production will grow in all regions but Europe.

The Shale Oil & Gas Revolution

High prices are also supporting the expansion of supply, and not just from conventional sources – the development and deployment of new technologies across a range of energy sources is opening up new supply opportunities at scale.
The “shale revolution”, first for gas and then for oil, is an example of this. From 2011 to 2030 shale gas more than trebles and tight oil grows more than six-fold.Together they will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.
High prices for fossil fuels also support the expansion of non-fossil energy. Renewable energy supply more than trebles from 2011 to 2030, accounting for 17% of the increase in global energy supply. Hydro and nuclear together account for another 17% of the growth.

Despite all the growth from shale, renewables and other sources, conventional fossil fuel supplies are still required to expand, providing almost half the growth in energy supply. 

The MasterMetals Blog

2013 #BP World #Energy #Outlook 2030 Part 1 - Demand

Population growth in Emerging Economies will make up 90% of global energy demand growth.

The latest BP World Energy Outlook 2030 is out.  Here are some excerpts from the report.

Population and income growth underpin growing energy consumption

Population and income growth are the key drivers behind growing demand for energy. By 2030 world population is projected to reach 8.3 billion, which means an additional 1.3 billion people will need energy; and world income in 2030 is expected to be roughly double the 2011 level in real terms.
World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a. from 2011 to 2030, adding 36% to global consumption by 2030.The growth rate declines, from 2.5% p.a. for 2000-10, to 2.1% p.a. for 2010-20, and 1.3% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.
Low and medium income economies outside the OECD account for over 90% of population growth to 2030. Due to their rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and motorisation, they also contribute 70% of the global GDP growth and over 90% of the global energy demand growth.

Industrialisation and growing power demand increase the world’s appetite for primary energy

Almost all (93%) of the energy consumption growth is in non-OECD countries. Non-OECD energy consumption in 2030 is 61% above the 2011 level, with growth averaging 2.5% p.a. (or 1.5% p.a. per capita), accounting for 65% of world consumption (compared to 53% in 2011).
OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 6% higher than in 2011 (0.3% p.a.), and will decline in per capita terms (-0.2% p.a. 2011-30).
Energy used for power generation grows by 49% (2.1% p.a.) 2011-30, and accounts for 57% of global primary energy growth. Primary energy used directly in industry grows by 31% (1.4% p.a.), accounting for 25% of the growth of primary energy consumption.
The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) with growth averaging 7.6% p.a. 2011-30. Nuclear (2.6% p.a.) and hydro (2.0% p.a.) both grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, gas grows the fastest (2.0% p.a.), followed by coal (1.2% p.a.), and oil (0.8% p.a.). 

Source: 2013 BP World Energy Outlook

The MasterMetals Blog

Special report: For Iran oil trader, Western ties run deep | Reuters

Special report: For Iran oil trader, Western ties run deep

9:16am EST

By Emma Farge, Chris Vellacott and Stephen Grey
LONDON (Reuters) - The newspaper notice sat next to advertisements for tarot-card readings, Alcoholics Anonymous meetings and children's tap-dancing lessons. The Naftiran Intertrade Company, an oil-trading firm owned by the Iranian government, announced plans to close its registered headquarters in the British tax haven of Jersey and move to a tax haven in Asia.
That advertisement, in a Jersey newspaper last September, came as Iranian companies were stepping up efforts to get around Western sanctions designed to slow or stop Iran's nuclear program. But the Iranian oil trader's retreat from the West has been only a partial one.
Reuters has learned that on February 1, Naftiran Intertrade increased its holding in British oil giant BP Plc by 1.85 million shares. It now holds a stake worth more than $190 million.
In addition to the shareholding, the Iranian company's ties to BP include the Rhum gas field in the North Sea, a venture that's now suspended due to sanctions. It also has active projects like a gas field with BP in Azerbaijan, and an investment with Royal Dutch Shell in fuel distribution in Senegal.
An examination of the operations of Naftiran Intertrade, or NICO as it is known, shows just how difficult it is for Western companies to untangle their ties with Iran. NICO is under pressure to leave Europe, but it has a web of assets, joint ventures and relationships with Western firms that will likely prove difficult and expensive for either side to break.
A spokesman at BP said the company would not comment on individual shareholders. "However we regularly review and take legal advice to ensure our compliance with sanctions legislation. We remain confident that BP is in full compliance with all applicable sanctions regimes including UN, EU regulations and US law, and will remain in compliance," he said. "We continue to monitor the situation closely."
NIOC and NICO did not respond to requests for comment.
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SPECIAL REPORT-Iran's cat-and-mouse game on sanctions: link.reuters.com/daf66s
SPECIAL REPORT-For Iran oil trader, Western ties run deep in PDF: link.reuters.com/vyj66s
Graphic showing changes to IRISL fleet over past four years: link.reuters.com/faf66s
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"A BIT TOO CLOSE"
NICO jumped from Jersey before it was pushed. The firm, which is essentially the offshore arm of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), dissolved its base on the Channel isle on January 8 with a "certificate of continuance" that indicated it would move to the tax haven of Labuan, an island off the coast of Malaysia.
"The company decided it would be best to move their business elsewhere," said a person close to the Jersey government. "They were aware of government concerns. They had very close links to the Iranian regime, a bit too close."
A spokesman for Jersey's financial regulator JFSC declined to comment.
NICO has been under U.S. sanctions since 2008, deemed an entity "owned or controlled by the Government of Iran." It had moved its headquarters to Jersey from London in 1991, after decades of operations in Britain in the days before Iran's Islamic revolution and "long before the days when (Britain) grew a conscience," as one veteran oil trader put it.
The National Iranian Oil Company relies on NICO as an important source of foreign exchange. If NICO was to shut altogether, analysts say, it would starve the NIOC of cash and put it at the mercy of Iran's squabbling political elites and clerics.
"NICO is a way for the National Iranian Oil Company to raise capital without having to rely on budget allocations approved by the Iranian government," said Valerie Marcel, an associate fellow at think tank Chatham House and an expert in nationally owned oil companies.
To get around the sanctions, NICO uses offshore financial havens and a web of asset and industrial holdings in the West. While it was based in Jersey, the firm operated through a "service company" based in Switzerland. But even there, in a country that has not yet signed up to the trade sanctions against Iran, the company's future could be in doubt.
LAKESIDE OUTPOST
Tucked behind a pebble beach on Lake Geneva in Pully, a chic suburb of Lausanne, NICO's remaining active European base is housed in a five-storey glass and marble office block. The office was set up in 2002 after the company moved its oil trading and energy investment activities to Switzerland from London.
A profile page on professional networking website LinkedIn states that NICO's Swiss office has between 11-50 employees; one of those workers posted that the firm's annual trading profit was $23 billion, although this figure could not be independently verified.
NICO's Swiss base has played a key role in maintaining an international presence beyond the reach of Western powers seeking to choke it, say oil traders familiar with its operations.
Switzerland is neutral and not a member of the European Union. It is also divided into semi-autonomous 'cantons' which compete with each other to attract companies and are often reluctant to interfere in their affairs.
Officials in the canton of Vaud, which contains Lausanne, said they saw no reason for NICO to leave.
"It's not because of cowardice or indifference, it's just that we don't have the authority or the right to have a position on foreign policy," said an official in the canton's department for economic development.
That could change. Switzerland tends to copy sanctions passed by its largest trade partner, the European Union, and trade experts think that it will eventually pass a law aimed at curtailing the "import, purchase or transport" of Iranian oil.
But even then, pressure on NICO's Swiss hub could be blunted by the realities of Switzerland's special status as a neutral nation in international affairs, as well as a variety of loopholes.
A former Swiss diplomat now working in Brussels said that "the general plan has been for Switzerland to try to converge on what the EU does, but Iran is a case of its own."
Historically, Switzerland has helped the U.S. in its relations with Iran, he said. "I think the Swiss will be extremely careful about taking any decision on this matter. The overriding concern is the representation of U.S. interests and Switzerland's role as a go-between although this has been a difficult undertaking for years."
To avoid creating a loophole in the EU sanctions regime "the trading functions (of Iranian companies) could be moved elsewhere," he said.
LONDON HEYDAY
NICO's roots in Europe are deep. Its former European hub in London is a sparsely occupied seven-floor building a few doors down from New Scotland Yard and within sight of Westminster Abbey. It still belongs to parent company NIOC, according to Land Registry documents.