Ivanhoe $IVN.TO : Less Tonnes, but More Revenue

Ivanhoe: The New Numbers Matter

Figure 1:Ivanhoe's revenue projections show significant upside from commodity price strength, with current spot prices adding +421M (19.3%) in 2026F and +727M (21.7%) in 2027F versus the original November 2025 price deck.

Following Ivanhoe's updates on Platreef & Kamoa, and given the run-up in metals prices since last year, it's probably a good time to take a look at what this means for the bottom line ahead of full 2026 Guidance next month. The market seems to be valuing Ivanhoe Mines on old volumes, at old prices. The reality is lower volumes, yes, but at much, much higher prices.

When Ivanhoe reset Kamoa-Kakula production guidance on December 3, 2025, the market rightly punished the stock for a 27% copper cut in 2026. But since that guidance release, every single commodity in Ivanhoe's basket has appreciated materially, generating a $421M revenue uplift in 2026 and, at current spot prices, a $727M windfall in 2027—entirely from price strength, not volume growth. There are also a couple of (positive) surprises hiding inside that it seems nobody's modeling.

Let's take a look under the hood.

The Numbers

Without mining a single additional tonne, Ivanhoe's 2027 revenue grows by $727M purely from commodity price appreciation vs. the November 2025 estimates.

 

2026F	2026F at Old Prices	2026F at Spot	Uplift
Total Revenue	$2,178M	$2,599M	+$421M (+19.3%)
2027F	2027F at Old Prices	2027F at Spot	Uplift
Total Revenue	$3,347M	$4,074M	+$727M (+21.7%)

Millions USD. Previous from November 2025 estimates. Spot Prices Jan. 16, 2026. All production figures attributable to Ivanhoe; volumes held constant at December 2025 guidance.

Revenue Mix by Asset at Spot Prices

Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula: Lower, Slower, But Still World-Class

Ivanhoe's "New Normal" at Kamoa-Kakula

Lower, Slower, But Still World-Class

Ivanhoe Mines finally released its long-awaited 2026–2027 production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula on December 3^rd, and the numbers confirm what skeptics feared: full recovery from the May 2025 flood will take longer and yield less than pre-incident expectations.

The New Guidance Reality

Ivanhoe Mines: Platreef Goes Live

PGM Game-Changer — A Multi-Commodity Transformation in Progress

Platreef is live, Kipushi is ramping, Kamoa is recovering—here's what the next three years look like.

Ivanhoe Mines officially flipped the switch on its long-awaited Platreef project in South Africa's Bushveld Complex on November 19, and if you've been tracking the platinum-group metals sector, you know this is no ordinary mine. Platreef is enormous and positioned to reshape the global PGM supply landscape over the next decade. Here's what production and revenue look like as the mine scales from Phase 1 through Phase 2. Phase 3 and beyond are not covered here. First let’s see them get through phase 2 - which is ambitious enough!

Combined with Kamoa-Kakula (copper) and Kipushi (zinc), Ivanhoe aims to transform from a copper-dominant producer into a diversified multi-commodity mining house with exposure across base metals, precious metals, and PGMs.

What Makes Platreef Unique

To those who say you can’t have too much of a good thing…meet Cobalt

DRC suspends cobalt exports for four months trying to rein in oversupply on the international market, as prices crash below $10/lb. Cobalt hydroxide, main form of the metal produced in Congo, slid below $6/lb.—levels not breached for 21 years,apart from a brief dip in late 2015, according to Fastmarkets data.

Cobalt production in the DRC– which produces about 75% of the material used in electric-vehicle batteries – has soared in recent years, as China's CMOC Group Ltd. ramped up output at two large mines in the country causing supply to race ahead of demand and prices to tumble. 

About two-thirds of global cobalt mine supply is owned by companies from China, which accounted for an equivalent share of cobalt demand last year, according to specialist trading house Darton Commodities.

Gulf states putting their $ into #Mining

"Middle East is looking to diversify and has a war chest."

Interesting article from the FT on the new kids on the Mining block.

#Zambia's Mopani #Copper deal with #UAE's International Resources Holding IRH, part of the $240bn business empire of powerful Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, finalized at the end of March marks a new force sweeping through the global mining sector.

"Gulf nations, hungry to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuels, are redirecting petrodollars to secure copper, nickel and other minerals used in power transmission lines, electric cars and renewable power."

"Washington has welcomed the Gulf's expanding role in mining for helping to break Beijing's monopoly over processing critical minerals. The US has been actively brokering Saudi, Emirati and Qatari investment

#BatteryMetals producers look to establish their own cartel

As the electrification drive continues globally in the search for lower fossil fuel emissions, the producers and refiners of the metals needed for this "revolution" are finding themselves at the intersection of the world's supply chains and geopolitics.

The FT takes on the subject in this latest piece.

The new commodity superpowers

"We're not satisfied. None of these contracts create value for us," says Guy Robert Lukama, head of the DRC's state-owned mining company Gécamines. He would like to see more jobs, revenue and higher-value mineral activities captured by the DRC.

Lukama also advocates government intervention to keep cobalt prices high: "Excess of supply needs to be organised properly. Some export quotas will be useful," he says.