Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula: Lower, Slower, But Still World-Class

Ivanhoe's "New Normal" at Kamoa-Kakula

Lower, Slower, But Still World-Class

Ivanhoe Mines finally released its long-awaited 2026–2027 production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula on December 3^rd, and the numbers confirm what skeptics feared: full recovery from the May 2025 flood will take longer and yield less than pre-incident expectations.

The New Guidance Reality

2026: 380,000–420,000 tonnes copper (midpoint: 400,000 t)
2027: 500,000–540,000 tonnes copper (midpoint: 520,000 t)
Medium-term target: ~550,000 tonnes maintained, but timeline unclear

For context, pre-flood guidance was 550,000+ tonnes by 2026. Today's numbers represent a ~30% haircut for 2026 and suggest the 550,000-tonne medium-term target won't be hit until 2028 at the earliest.

Production Guidance Comparison (New vs. Previous)

Asset	Metal	2025 Actual	2026 (New)	2026 (Prev.)	% Change	2027 (New)	2027 (Prev.)	% Change
Kamoa-Kakula	Copper (t)	395,000	400,000	550,000	-27%	520,000	600,000	-13.3%
Kipushi	Zinc (t)	210,000	260,000	250,000	+4.0%	280,000	280,000	0.0%
Platreef	PGM+Au (oz)	10,000	85,000	100,000	-15.0%	460,000	460,000	0.0%

2026, 2027 New guidance, midpoint, Dec. 3, 2025. Revenues Calculated at spot.
Previous guidance based on pre-flood Kamoa guidance and earlier Platreef commissioning timeline.

What Changed?

The May seismic event flooded Kakula's eastern high-grade zones, and Stage 2 dewatering—now 60–70% complete—has revealed more extensive infrastructure damage than initially assessed. While western Kakula is mining 350,000 tonnes/month (4.2 Mtpa annualized), grades are 1–1.5% lower than the eastern high-grade centre that remains offline.

The revised mine plan incorporates new pillar designs and extraction sequencing based on geotechnical expert guidance. Selective mining on the eastern side won't start until Q1 2026, and new eastern mining areas won't contribute meaningfully until mid-2026.

The Silver Lining

Ivanhoe isn't sitting idle. The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Smelter fired up on December 1, 2025, and will destock ~20,000 tonnes of concentrate inventory in 2026—meaning sales will exceed production next year. The smelter eliminates costly tolling fees and positions Ivanhoe as Africa's largest refined copper producer.

Meanwhile, Kamoa 1, 2, and Kansoko mines are ramping toward 10 Mtpa by 2027 (from 6.5 Mtpa today), feeding the Phase 3 concentrator and supplementing Phase 1/2. The combined 17 Mtpa processing capacity (Phases 1+2+3) will be fully utilized by 2027.

The Bottom Line

Today's guidance reset is a necessary reality check, not a disaster. Kamoa-Kakula remains a Tier-1 asset with 3.5–4.5% copper grades in the high-grade centre—double the global average. But investors must now price in:

• 18–24 month recovery timeline (vs. 12 months hoped)
• Lower near-term cash flows (~$1.5B vs. $2B+ in 2026)
• Execution risk on the revised mine plan

For Ivanhoe, this means leaning harder on Platreef and Kipushi for growth. Platreef's $626M revenue contribution by 2027 (20% of group) becomes critical to offset Kamoa's slower ramp.

QIA's $500M Investment: Strategic Funding for Growth

In September 2025, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) completed a US$500 million strategic private placement into Ivanhoe at C$12.00/share, acquiring a 4% stake.

The proceeds are earmarked for Western Forelands (DRC) exploration, where Ivanhoe holds 2,393 km² of licences (six times larger than Kamoa-Kakula) hosting the high-grade Makoko, Kiala, and Kitoko discoveries. Makoko alone has doubled in contained copper since November 2023 and now spans 13 km, rivalling early Kakula in scale. A November 2025 MoU commits both parties to collaborate on preferential financing, infrastructure development, and downstream processing capacity, giving Ivanhoe access to Middle Eastern capital markets and QIA's global network on favorable terms.

With copper prices above $4.50/lb and supply deficits forecast through 2030, the $500 million capital infusion gives Ivanhoe the financial cushion to aggressively develop its new discoveries. The deal dilutes shareholders by only 4%, making it accretive to long-term value while removing financial constraints as Ivanhoe fixes Kamoa-Kakula's flood recovery and ramps up Platreef to Phase 2 production.

Key Observations from Updated Guidance

1. Kamoa-Kakula's 2026 guidance is 27% below previous expectations (400k vs. 550k tonnes), representing a ~$550M revenue shortfall for Ivanhoe (based on spot prices)
2. Copper concentration drops from 80% → 64% by 2027 as Platreef scales
3. Platreef's delayed ramp-up reduces 2026 contribution by $31M vs. previous estimates
4. QIA's $500M provides balance sheet flexibility to accelerate Western Forelands exploration while managing Kamoa's recovery and Platreef ramp-up.

The revised numbers reflect a more conservative, risk-adjusted outlook that accounts for geotechnical realities rather than aspirational targets. While growth remains intact, the timeline is extended and the path is bumpier.

At C$15/share, the share has already recovered from its $10 lows when the seismic event took place in Q1. With Copper heading to new highs and production recuperating, the stock should remain strong. If Platreef executes and Kamoa hits 520,000+ tonnes by 2027, today's valuation looks attractive. If not, there's more pain ahead. But don't bet against Friedland, he's always able to pull it off.

Ivanhoe Mines Stock Data (as of December 3, 2025)

Symbol	Last Price	Market Cap	52-Wk High	52-Wk Low	Avg Daily Volume
IVN (TSX)	CAD $15.29	CAD $20.7B	CAD $21.32	CAD $8.76	~3.0M shares

For more context on Ivanhoe's multi-asset strategy, see previous MasterMetals coverage on Platreef's commissioning.

Appendix

Revenue Mix by Asset (2025‚2026F, 2027F)

Asset	2025	2026F	2027F
Kamoa-Kakula	$1,524M (80%)	$1,543M (73%)	$2,006M (64%)
Kipushi	$365M (19%)	$451M (21%)	$486M (16%)
Platreef	$18M (1%)	$115M (5%)	$626M (20%)
Total	$1,907M	$2,109M	$3,118M

Revenue Mix by Metal (2025‚2026F, 2027F)

Metal	2025	2026F	2027F
Copper	$1,524M (80%)	$1,543M (73%)	$2,006M (64%)
Zinc	$365M (19%)	$451M (21%)	$486M (16%)
Platinum	$8M (0.4%)	$39M (2%)	$210M (7%)
Palladium	$7M (0.4%)	$35M (2%)	$190M (6%)
Gold	$2M (0.1%)	$16M (1%)	$87M (3%)
Nickel	$1M (0.1%)	$7M (0.3%)	$38M (1%)
Rhodium	$0.5M (<0.1%)	$12M (0.6%)	$61M (2%)
Total	$1,907M	$2,109M	$3,118M

Revenue Mix Evolution: Asset & Metal Diversification

	Year	Copper %	Zinc %	PGMs %	Gold %	Nickel %	Total Revenue
Copper Dominant	2025	80%	19%	<1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	$1.91B
PGMs Emerging	2026F	73%	21%	4%	1%	0.4%	$2.11B
Multi-Commodity Miner	2027F	64%	16%	15%	3%	1%	$3.12B

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