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2013 #BP World #Energy #Outlook 2030 Part 2 - Supply

Asia Pacific will account for nearly half of global growth. Together Shale Oil & Gas will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.

The latest BP World Energy Outlook 2030 is out.  Here are some excerpts from the report.

Asia Pacific for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030

World primary energy production growth matches consumption, growing by 1.6% p.a. from 2011 to 2030.
As is the case for energy consumption, growth in production will be dominated by the non-OECD countries, which will account for 78% of the world’s increase.These countries will supply 71% of global energy production in 2030, up from 69% in 2011 and 58% in 1990.
The Asia Pacific region, the largest regional energy producer, shows the most rapid growth rate (2.2% p.a.), due to large indigenous coal production, and accounts for 48% of global energy production growth. The region provides 35% of global energy production by 2030. The Middle East and North America contribute the next largest increments for supply growth; and North America remains the second largest regional energy producer.
Energy production will grow in all regions but Europe.

The Shale Oil & Gas Revolution

High prices are also supporting the expansion of supply, and not just from conventional sources – the development and deployment of new technologies across a range of energy sources is opening up new supply opportunities at scale.
The “shale revolution”, first for gas and then for oil, is an example of this. From 2011 to 2030 shale gas more than trebles and tight oil grows more than six-fold.Together they will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.
High prices for fossil fuels also support the expansion of non-fossil energy. Renewable energy supply more than trebles from 2011 to 2030, accounting for 17% of the increase in global energy supply. Hydro and nuclear together account for another 17% of the growth.

Despite all the growth from shale, renewables and other sources, conventional fossil fuel supplies are still required to expand, providing almost half the growth in energy supply. 

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2013 #BP World #Energy #Outlook 2030 Part 1 - Demand

Population growth in Emerging Economies will make up 90% of global energy demand growth.

The latest BP World Energy Outlook 2030 is out.  Here are some excerpts from the report.

Population and income growth underpin growing energy consumption

Population and income growth are the key drivers behind growing demand for energy. By 2030 world population is projected to reach 8.3 billion, which means an additional 1.3 billion people will need energy; and world income in 2030 is expected to be roughly double the 2011 level in real terms.
World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a. from 2011 to 2030, adding 36% to global consumption by 2030.The growth rate declines, from 2.5% p.a. for 2000-10, to 2.1% p.a. for 2010-20, and 1.3% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.
Low and medium income economies outside the OECD account for over 90% of population growth to 2030. Due to their rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and motorisation, they also contribute 70% of the global GDP growth and over 90% of the global energy demand growth.

Industrialisation and growing power demand increase the world’s appetite for primary energy

Almost all (93%) of the energy consumption growth is in non-OECD countries. Non-OECD energy consumption in 2030 is 61% above the 2011 level, with growth averaging 2.5% p.a. (or 1.5% p.a. per capita), accounting for 65% of world consumption (compared to 53% in 2011).
OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 6% higher than in 2011 (0.3% p.a.), and will decline in per capita terms (-0.2% p.a. 2011-30).
Energy used for power generation grows by 49% (2.1% p.a.) 2011-30, and accounts for 57% of global primary energy growth. Primary energy used directly in industry grows by 31% (1.4% p.a.), accounting for 25% of the growth of primary energy consumption.
The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) with growth averaging 7.6% p.a. 2011-30. Nuclear (2.6% p.a.) and hydro (2.0% p.a.) both grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, gas grows the fastest (2.0% p.a.), followed by coal (1.2% p.a.), and oil (0.8% p.a.). 

Source: 2013 BP World Energy Outlook

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