Barrick’s Latest Move: IPO the Crown Jewels—But at What Price?
Following Barrick's (NYSE: B) announcement that the board has authorized management to explore an initial public offering of its Tier 1 North American gold assets, let's take a closer look at what the spinout would look like. The proposed “NewCo” would combine Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, and the wholly-owned Fourmile discovery into what could become one of the world’s largest pure-play gold companies.
What’s in the NewCo Package?
The proposed subsidiary would hold three world-class assets:
| Asset | Barrick Ownership | 2024 Production (100% basis) | P&P Reserves | Key Features |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Gold Mines | 61.5% | ~2.68 Moz | 46 Moz (100%) | Largest gold complex globally; three Tier One assets. |
| Pueblo Viejo | 60% | ~588 Koz | ~14 Moz (100%) | Expansion toward ~800 Koz/year by mid‑decade; mine life to 2040+. |
| Fourmile | 100% | Development stage | 7.8 Moz resources | Exceptional grades (~12–14 g/t); positioned as this century’s standout discovery in Nevada. |
Projected gold production for Barrick’s proposed North American spinoff entity through 2029.
Sell‑side estimates suggest NewCo could be valued in the US$50–62 billion range if the market assigns it a North American “Agnico‑style” premium multiple, reflecting concentration in Tier One jurisdictions and a deep reserve base. More on the valuation of the NewCo later.
The Nevada Gold Mines Foundation
Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) is the core pillar. It currently produces roughly 2.5–2.7 Moz per year on a 100% basis, with a five‑year path toward ~3 Moz as Goldrush and underground expansions at Carlin, Cortez and Turquoise Ridge are executed. Site visit materials for 2025 highlight:
- H1 2025 AISC running at ~US$1,800/oz, above guidance but with a stronger second half expected as grades and throughput improve.
- Proven and probable reserves of 46 MM oz at an average grade of 2.8 g/t, plus substantial additional resources.
- Three Tier One assets (Carlin, Cortez, Turquoise Ridge) under a single integrated processing network, with ongoing recapitalisation to reduce long‑term unit costs.
Since the JV was formed in 2019, NGM has added more than 19 MM oz of reserves, underlining why this asset is now at the center of both IPO and M&A discussions.
Pueblo Viejo: The Expansion Catalyst
Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic is the second leg of the story. Barrick and Newmont (60/40 JV) are finishing a multi‑billion‑dollar expansion designed to lift throughput and sustain an ~800 Koz/year production profile (100% basis) well into the 2040s.
- Recent quarters have already shown step‑ups in output as debottlenecking work bears fruit.
- The remaining risks are mainly execution and social: completing tailings infrastructure (El Naranjo) and resettlement while managing elevated operating costs relative to Nevada.
On a 60% basis, Pueblo Viejo adds a chunky ~350–400 Koz per year of attributable production to NewCo, but at a higher cost structure and with more ESG and country‑risk hair than Nevada.
Fourmile: The Wildcard
The real upside option is Fourmile, which sits adjacent to the Cortez complex but is 100% owned by Barrick and currently outside the NGM JV. Updated resource work in late 2024 showed:
- Indicated resources of ~1.4 Moz at ~11.8 g/t and inferred resources of ~6.4 Moz at ~14.1 g/t.
- Only about one‑third of the drilled footprint captured in the current resource, with management targeting material growth.
Internal studies suggest that once fully developed, Fourmile’s cash flow profile could surpass Goldrush by a wide margin. Test production is realistically a post‑2028 story, but capital markets are already assigning it meaningful option value.
Pro‑Forma NewCo Numbers
Putting it all together, a rough pro‑forma picture for NewCo looks like this:
| Metric | Estimated Value |
|---|---|
| 2024 Production (attributable) | ~2.0 Moz |
| 2024 Production (100% basis) | ~3.27 Moz |
| 2029E Production (100% basis) | ~3.85 Moz (with Fourmile ramping) |
| Total P&P Reserves (100%) | ~60 Moz |
| M&I Resources (100%) | ~70 Moz |
| Estimated AISC | ~US$1,640/oz (portfolio‑level) |
| Potential Equity Value | US$50–62B (if priced at a North American premium) |
At ~2 Moz of attributable production, NewCo would sit firmly in the top tier of global gold producers, but with a far cleaner jurisdictional and asset profile than most of its peers. At current gold prices (~$4200/oz, ~60% Margins) NewCo would be generating ~$4-5 Billion in Earnings.
What the “Agnico Premium” Really Implies
The reference point for valuation is Agnico Eagle. In recent quarters Agnico has delivered:
- All‑in sustaining costs in the low US$1,300/oz range, among the lowest in the sector.
- Operating margins above 70% at current gold prices.
- A sustained forward P/E premium of 40–50% versus the broader gold mining group, largely due to its concentration in Canada, Finland and Mexico.
Barrick currently trades at a lower multiple due to Africa, Pakistan and Zambia exposure and a history of cost variability. If NewCo can deliver Agnico‑like operational discipline in Nevada and the Dominican Republic, a multiple re‑rating is plausible—but not automatic.
The Skeptic’s Take: Why Now—and Who Ultimately Owns It?
Strategically, the spinout idea is straightforward: crystallise value in its North American Tier One assets, while ring‑fencing higher‑risk jurisdictions (and copper) in a separate vehicle. But it also sets the stage for the next act—M&A.
Newmont already owns 38.5% of Nevada Gold Mines through the existing JV. Acquiring Barrick’s 61.5% would give it full control over the world’s largest gold mining complex and lock up a dominant North American position. That is precisely why several street analysts see NewCo as a likely eventual take‑out candidate rather than a permanent standalone.
Key risks remain:
- Valuation risk: the widely quoted US$60B “blue sky” number assumes Agnico‑style multiples. Any wobble in execution or gold price and the premium evaporates quickly.
- Control Block discount: Barrick has signaled that any IPO would involve only a small minority stake, with Barrick retaining control. This, however, is likely to give NewCo a discount valuation, rather than a premium. But once there is a public market price on NewCo equity, the pressure from arbitrage desks, activists and strategic buyers like Newmont will only increase.
- JV complexity: both NGM and Pueblo Viejo are shared with Newmont; governance, capital allocation, and offtake decisions will remain negotiated, not unilateral.
- RemainCo risk: what’s left inside Barrick—Africa, Pakistan, Zambia—may trade at an even steeper discount once the North American crown jewels are separated.
The path forward for Barrick is likely a delicate balancing act, if not an outright minefield. By floating a minority stake, management hopes to set a valuation benchmark that forces the market to re-rate the entire company, all while keeping the keys to the Nevada kingdom. If the market balks at a controlled subsidiary structure, however, activist pressure could force a full separation or a direct sale of the North American portfolio—potentially catalyzing the largest gold sector consolidation in history.
Stay tuned...
Barrick Mining ($B) – Quick Snapshot
| Symbol | B (NYSE) |
| Last Price | US$42.07 (as of Dec 1, 2025) |
| Market Cap | ~US$72.4B |
| 52‑Week Range | US$15.31 – US$43.08 |
| Avg Daily Volume | ~20.1M shares |
| P/E Ratio | ~20.2x |
| Dividend Yield | ~1.25% |
Sources: Barrick Mining Corporation press releases, site visit materials, and public market data.
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