Q1 2025 Snapshot
· Q1 2025 Supply: 1,458 koz (down 10% year-on-year)
· Q1 2025 Demand: 2,274 koz (up 10% year-on-year)
· Q1 2025 Deficit: 816 koz (largest quarterly deficit in six years)[1]
Platinum Market Deficit Deepens in 2025
The platinum market is heading for its third straight annual deficit in 2025, with the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasting a shortfall of 966,000 ounces (koz), or 12% of total demand. This deepening deficit is driven by both falling supply and resilient demand, despite global economic and trade uncertainties[1].
Supply:
Yearly supply is down 4% to 6,999 koz, hitting a five-year low. This is largely due to a 13% drop in mine output in Q1 2025, particularly from South Africa, which saw heavy rainfall disrupt operations. North American and Zimbabwean output also fell sharply. Recycling provided only a modest offset.
Above-ground platinum stocks are forecast to drop 31% to 2,160 koz, covering just three months of demand. Tight supply is reflected in elevated lease rates and Forward Curves in backwardation. The structural deficit underscores ongoing supply risks and resilient demand, pointing to potential price impacts as the market tightens.
Demand:
Despite a 4% decline, demand remains robust at 7,965 koz. Investment surged in Q1 with bar and coin demand up 30%, notably in China and North America, as traders moved metal into US warehouses ahead of tariff changes. Jewelry demand rebounded, especially in China (+15% forecast for 2025) and Europe, as high gold prices pushed consumers toward platinum. Automotive demand softened but remains historically high. Industrial demand is down, mainly due to a cyclical trough in glass sector demand, though gains are seen in hydrogen, petroleum, medical, and electrical uses [1].
Geo-Political and Economic uncertainty due to International Trade disagreements and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East & Ukraine, may risk Global GDP growth and thereby Platinum demand. The scale of the current deficit is so significant, it is difficult to envision a scenario that would materially reduce this shortfall.
WPIC says, these cumulative deficits are not being reflected in the Platinum price. “With continuing deficits, constrained supply, and robust demand, Platinum's investment case appears compelling.”
Key 2025 Supply and Demand Figures
· Total 2025 Supply: 6,999 koz (down 4% year-on-year)
o Mine Production: 5,426 koz (down 6%)
o Recycling: 1,573 koz (up 3%)
· Total 2025 Demand: 7,965 koz (down 4% year-on-year)
o Automotive: 3,052 koz (down 2%)
o Jewelry: 2,114 koz (up 5%)
o Industrial: 2,111 koz (down 15%)
o Investment: 688 koz (down 2%)[1]
Above-Ground Stocks
· End-2025 above-ground stocks: 2,160 koz (down 31% from 2024), covering only about three months of demand[1].
1. See the whole report here: https://platinuminvestment.com/files/873451/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q1_2025.pdf
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