· Beat broker consensus across key metrics
(note that the Bloomberg consensus is incomplete)
(note that the Bloomberg consensus is incomplete)
Consensus
|
No. of
|
Production
|
AISC
|
CFPS pre-WC
|
Adj. EPS
|
estimates
|
(koz)
|
($/oz)
|
($/sh)
|
($/sh)
| |
Bloomberg
|
5
|
112
|
n.a.
|
$0.36
|
$(0.05)
|
Company Surveyed
|
11
|
110
|
$970
|
$0.39
|
$(0.08)
|
Actual
|
121
|
$877
|
$0.44
|
$(0.04)
| |
Beat / Miss
|
Beat
|
Beat
|
Beat
|
Beat
|
› The production beat vs. consensus was driven by a slightly better than expected performance across operating mines and the earlier than expected first pour gold at Ity CIL
› The AISC beat vs. consensus was largely driven by a beat at Agbaou while Hounde and Karma were within 5% of consensus
› Q1-2019 production decreased and AISC increased over the record Q4-2018 (as anticipated) due to: 1) the Ity heap leach operation ceased in 2018 ahead of the CIL commissioning and 2) the group strategically fed ῀30% of total mill feed from low-grade stockpiles (in line with the previously announced focus on reducing working capital), allowing for an increase in waste capitalization activities which is expected to give rise to higher grades in the upcoming quarters.
· Well positioned to meet full year 2019 production and AISC guidance
› Stronger performance is expected in the upcoming quarters as the Ity CIL project was commissioned in early Q2-2019 and higher process grades are expected across the group
› As a reminder 2019 guidance is for production of 615-695koz and AISC of between $760-810/oz
· Upcoming catalysts:
ESTIMATED TIMING
|
CATALYST
| |
Early-Q2
|
Ity CIL
|
› Benefit from the start of commercial production at Ity CIL
|
Q2
|
Ity CIL
|
› Increased resource at the Le Plaque discovery
|
Q2
|
Houndé
|
› Maiden reserve for the Kari Pump discovery
|
Late-Q2
|
Houndé
|
› Commissioning of the high-grade Bouéré deposit
|
Mid-year
|
Houndé
|
› Drill results for the ongoing exploration campaign at the Kari West and Kari Center discoveries
|
Q3
|
Fetekro
|
› Resources increase at the Lafigue deposit
|
Q4
|
Ity CIL
|
› Plant upsize to 5Mtpa complete
|
Q4
|
Houndé
|
› Maiden resource for the Kari West and Kari Center discoveries
|
Q4
|
Ity CIL
|
› Maiden reserve for the Le Plaque discovery
|
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