#Gold #ETF - The big buyers are in Germany $XETRA

Unlike a year ago when the big ETF buyers were in the U.S., this time it's the Germans. They are buying XETRA-Gold, the exchange-traded fund backed by bullion. Investors poured almost US$ 906MM into this ETF this month, the biggest inflow since inception in 2007. As of February 13, holdings were estimated at 157.9 metric tons (attachment 1).

The motivations of the buying are political. The uncertainty about BREXIT, U.S. politics, and elections in Holland (March) and France (1st round April, second round May).

The latest buying spree by them was done between US$ 1,220 per ounce and US$ 1,250 per ounce. Attachment 2 shows the sharp and long decline of gold from 2012 with a low in January 2016 round US$ 1,040 per ounce. After that a rally occurred till July 2016 to around US 1,370 and subsequently gold fell back to around US$ 1,125 per ounce. The current rally is still considered to be against the major trend, which is down. A breakout over US$ 1,350 per ounce would signal the end of the bear market. Gold is not out of the woods yet.

$HUI ARCA Gold Bugs Index lost 5 % yesterday, is #Gold next?

As per yesterday's "Gold and silver" post that the ARCA Gold Bugs Index (HUI) wasn't advancing anymore despite the bullion price rising last week. We said this flashed some yellow-lights, a signal to proceed with caution. It was also a divergence.

 

Yesterday the HUI (Gold Bugs Index), after firm moments after the opening, sold off losing 5% on the day. The index also broke through the 50-day moving average on the downside. Usually the gold stocks are leading the spot gold price. The volume was heavy on the downside.

Attachment 2 shows the 30-minutes chart of gold. It shows the sudden drop of the gold price yesterday.

 

 

#Gold & #Silver #COT Silver spec longs highest in 12 months

Commitments of Futures Traders show that

large speculators (hedge funds and money

managers) have increased their long positions.

Net commercial dealers increased their short

positions. The positions are almost the smallest

of the last 12 months (attachment 1).

 

The Gold Barometers reveal that gold stocks

are overbought while the physical gold and

silver are in neutral territory (attachment 2).

 

As the KITCO Gold Survey (attachment 3)

shows Wall Street and Retail Investors are

bullish for this week.

 

The Commitments of Futures Traders show

a complete different picture in silver than

gold. Large speculators continue to build

positions while net commercial silver dealers

are increasing their short positions. These

positions are approaching the highest level

of the last 12 months and are historically

very high (attachment 4). Once the showdown

is coming it will be dramatic.

 

The Gold hourly chart (attachment 5) indicates

the advance of the gold spot price last

Thursday and Friday. Gold closed, as per last

Friday, New York time 4 p.m., at US$ 1,256

per ounce for a gain of US$ 21 per ounce on

the week.

 

Interestingly, while the gold bullion price

rose the ARCA Gold Bugs Index (called HUI)

couldn't advance. The advance of this index

stopped at the 200-day moving average and

the MACD crossed the red line about two weeks

ago (attachment 6). This flashes some yellow

lights, a signal to proceed with caution.

 

Attachment 7 shows the HUI Index and the

Gold price on the graphic just above. It shows

the divergence between the gold mining stocks

and physical gold.