large speculators (hedge funds and money
managers) have increased their long positions.
Net commercial dealers increased their short
positions. The positions are almost the smallest
of the last 12 months (attachment 1).
The Gold Barometers reveal that gold stocks
are overbought while the physical gold and
silver are in neutral territory (attachment 2).
As the KITCO Gold Survey (attachment 3)
shows Wall Street and Retail Investors are
bullish for this week.
The Commitments of Futures Traders show
a complete different picture in silver than
gold. Large speculators continue to build
positions while net commercial silver dealers
are increasing their short positions. These
positions are approaching the highest level
of the last 12 months and are historically
very high (attachment 4). Once the showdown
is coming it will be dramatic.
The Gold hourly chart (attachment 5) indicates
the advance of the gold spot price last
Thursday and Friday. Gold closed, as per last
Friday, New York time 4 p.m., at US$ 1,256
per ounce for a gain of US$ 21 per ounce on
the week.
Interestingly, while the gold bullion price
rose the ARCA Gold Bugs Index (called HUI)
couldn't advance. The advance of this index
stopped at the 200-day moving average and
the MACD crossed the red line about two weeks
ago (attachment 6). This flashes some yellow
lights, a signal to proceed with caution.
Attachment 7 shows the HUI Index and the
Gold price on the graphic just above. It shows
the divergence between the gold mining stocks
and physical gold.
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