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September 6, 2013

Deals in the dumps — Global #Mining Deals in H1 2013 fell by 31% - PwC Canada

The deals that do get done over the next several months will help shape the future of the mining industry and determine its key players 
the number of deals across the global mining sector fell by 31% in the first half of 2013 compared to the same time last year, which was already considered to be a slow time for deal activity.
Deal value fell 74% to US$20.6 billion between January and June 2013 versus the same period last year, which was a period highlighted by Glencore International plc’s US$54-billion purchase of Xstrata plc (GlenX), the largest-ever takeover in the sector. Even without the blockbuster GlenX agreement, deal values were down 21% for the first half of 2013 as compared with a year earlier
Gold and copper continued to be the most active for buyers and sellers in the first half of 2013. That trend is expected to continue as depressed prices create opportunities for companies that can afford to buy, and may force others to sell.
See the full PWC report here:  Deals in the dumps — Global Mining Deals: 2013 Mid-year report | PwC Canada

The MasterMetals Blog

Looks like the X in @EikeBatista's companies now stands for exponential loss of wealth. #OGX #EBX

"an investor who bought OGX shares at its I.P.O. price would now have lost over 96% of the original investment." 
The "company is producing hardly any petroleum, and it must make bond payments of about $40 million in October and $100 million in December."

Brazilian Regulators Open a New Inquiry Into Batista - NYTimes.com


Eike Batista, left, with President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, was flying high in 2012. Now his energy empire is being dismantled.
Ricardo Moraes/ReutersEike Batista, left, with President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, was flying high in 2012. Now his energy empire is being dismantled.
SÃO PAULO, Brazil – Brazil’s securities and exchange commission said on Thursday that it had opened a new formal investigation into the business dealings of the onetime billionaire Eike Batista.
The commission, known as the CVM, is examining whether Mr. Batista and five other executives of the petroleum company OGX may have violated several articles of Brazil’s corporate legislation.
Brazil’s rules require management to release material information that could influence a company’s share price as well as disclose information about their personal ownership stakes in the company.
In March, regulators had opened a separate inquiry into whether Mr. Batista might have violated disclosure rules.
The CVM has not revealed what specific events led to either inquiry, but OGX frequently announced major petroleum discoveries that subsequently proved to be economically unviable.
The new inquiry is the first indication that Mr. Batista or other top managers of his companies may possibly have changed their ownership stakes in an illegal manner, as the assumption has been that Mr. Batista has been hurt along with his investors.
Shares in OGX fell more than 7 percent on Thursday morning in São Paulo, trading around 38 centavos apiece, or about 16 cents.
The latest problem just adds to the woes of Mr. Batista, who was once Brazil’s richest man and had vowed to become the world’s richest as well.
When OGX went public in June 2008, it sold shares to investors at 1,131 reais apiece, or about $690 at the exchange rate at the time.
The company had a 100-1 share split in December 2009. But an investor who bought OGX shares at its I.P.O. price would now have lost over 96 percent of the original investment.
In recent months, Mr. Batista’s other companies have seen similar collapses in their share prices, as cash flow proved insufficient to service debt and to make the extensive investments that were supposed to create an empire of energy, mining and logistics companies.
Mr. Batista’s fortune, once over $30 billion, has collapsed with it, and he has sold off several assets in recent months.
In August, Mr. Batista sold a controlling stake in his logistics firm LLX to the energy investment firm EIG Global Energy Partners, based in Washington. The same month, OGX hired the Blackstone Group as a financial adviser, a possible sign that either a sale or a debt restructuring is near.
The company is producing hardly any petroleum, and it must make bond payments of about $40 million in October and $100 million in December.
The world’s largest bond investment firm, Pimco, invested heavily in OGX’s bonds and is leading a creditor committee that is negotiating with OGX.
Mr. Batista ostentatious lifestyle had once been popular gossip fodder. He raced speedboats, married a famous model and had dinner with Madonna. But since his fortunes have fallen, he has been forced to sell or pull back on his holdings.
Among the other assets he is seeking to sell is a luxury hotel in Rio de Janeiro, the Hotel Glória.
An attempt to sell his $19 million yacht, the Pink Fleet, failed, and Mr. Batista sent the yacht to the junkyard last month to be scrapped, presumably to save on maintenance costs.


Brazilian Regulators Open a New Inquiry Into Batista - NYTimes.com


September 4, 2013

$GDXJ #Gold #ETF deletions/addition forecasts- $ANV, $SMF & $SSRI potential addition candidates

From BMO: 

CONCLUSION: this would be positive for SMF, ANV and SSRI. Note that Allied Nevada is a deletion candidate from the larger GDX index so the effect would be mitigated. The real positive impact would be IF Semafo is included. It would generate over 20 million shares of net purchases.

 

Timing is sept 13th for the announcement and sept 20th to become effective.

 

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Quantitative Execution Services

Tuesday, September 3th

GDXJ Gold ETF - Addition/Deletion Forecasts

Expecting several changes this quarter including SMF CN and CGG CN

 

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index will be having its quarterly rebalance on Friday, Sept 20th.  The official announcement is expected after the close of trading on Friday, Sept 13th.    

 

Forecasts: Expecting several changes this quarter

Allied Nevada and Semafo

Many of the forecasted additions were previously too large to be added to the GDXJ.  Several are now within the 90%-98% market cap addition range.    Currently we see Allied Nevada well within the addition threshold and Semafo just inside the addition threshold.   This scenario could be impactful to Semafo since its potential addition would cause 7 days of volume. 

 

China Gold

On the deletion side we are once again seeing China Gold (CGG) close to being too large for the GDXJ ETF (right at <80% threshold).   If it is removed this would cause around 20M shares of supply from GDXJ.   This would be ideal for the Van Eck ETF's since CGG CN is likely to be added to the GDX ETF which would result ~15 M shares of demand.   Considering the low liquidity of CGG this could be very impactful. 

 

Other deletions

There are also four likely deletions due to the minimum market cap requirement (U$ 75M).  

 

See below and attached for our forecasts

 

Announcement Date: Friday, Sep 13th  

Rebalance Date: Friday, Sep 20th

 

About the GDXJ ETF

Van Eck's Junior Gold ETF (GDXJ US) tracks the Market Vector Junior Gold Miners index and has an AUM of approximately U$ 1.6B.  Changes in this index are impactful since the GDXJ holds a significant portion of the underlying names (~7% of float shares).  

See estimated flows below

Forecasted Additions (ANV US, SMF CN, ~SSRI US)

Name

Symbol

Type

Estimated Index Demand

Days of Interlisted ADV

Conviction

ALLIED NEVADA GOLD CORP

ANV US

Add

+7.1 MM

1.2

High: Thru 90% threshold

SEMAFO INC

SMF CN

Add

+20.1 MM

7.1

Med: Just thru 90% threshold

SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES

SSRI US

Add

+6.0 MM

3.2

Low: Near 90% threshold

 

 

Forecasted Deletions (~CGG CN, VGZ US, RIC US, THM US, AUMN US)

Name

Symbol

Type

Estimated Index Supply

Days of ADV

Conviction

CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL RES

CGG CN

Delete

-19.9 MM

29.6

Med: Right at 80% threshold

VISTA GOLD CORP

VGZ US

Delete

-6.2 MM

8.9

High: Below $75M limit

RICHMONT MINES INC

RIC US

Delete

-3.2 MM

23.8

High: Below $75M limit

INTL TOWER HILL MINES LTD

THM US

Delete

-4.4 MM

6.0

High: Below $75M limit

GOLDEN MINERALS CO

AUMN US

Delete

-3.5 MM

13.3

High: Below $75M limit

 


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