$GDXJ #Gold #ETF deletions/addition forecasts- $ANV, $SMF & $SSRI potential addition candidates

From BMO: 

CONCLUSION: this would be positive for SMF, ANV and SSRI. Note that Allied Nevada is a deletion candidate from the larger GDX index so the effect would be mitigated. The real positive impact would be IF Semafo is included. It would generate over 20 million shares of net purchases.

 

Timing is sept 13^th for the announcement and sept 20^th to become effective.

 

<image001.gif> Quantitative Execution Services Tuesday, September 3th GDXJ Gold ETF - Addition/Deletion Forecasts Expecting several changes this quarter including SMF CN and CGG CN   The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index will be having its quarterly rebalance on Friday, Sept 20th.  The official announcement is expected after the close of trading on Friday, Sept 13th.       Forecasts: Expecting several changes this quarter Allied Nevada and Semafo Many of the forecasted additions were previously too large to be added to the GDXJ.  Several are now within the 90%-98% market cap addition range.    Currently we see Allied Nevada well within the addition threshold and Semafo just inside the addition threshold.   This scenario could be impactful to Semafo since its potential addition would cause 7 days of volume.    China Gold On the deletion side we are once again seeing China Gold (CGG) close to being too large for the GDXJ ETF (right at <80% threshold).   If it is removed this would cause around 20M shares of supply from GDXJ.   This would be ideal for the Van Eck ETF's since CGG CN is likely to be added to the GDX ETF which would result ~15 M shares of demand.   Considering the low liquidity of CGG this could be very impactful.    Other deletions There are also four likely deletions due to the minimum market cap requirement (U$ 75M).     See below and attached for our forecasts   Announcement Date: Friday, Sep 13th   Rebalance Date: Friday, Sep 20th   About the GDXJ ETF Van Eck's Junior Gold ETF (GDXJ US) tracks the Market Vector Junior Gold Miners index and has an AUM of approximately U$ 1.6B.  Changes in this index are impactful since the GDXJ holds a significant portion of the underlying names (~7% of float shares).   See estimated flows below Forecasted Additions (ANV US, SMF CN, ~SSRI US) Name Symbol Type Estimated Index Demand Days of Interlisted ADV Conviction ALLIED NEVADA GOLD CORP ANV US Add +7.1 MM 1.2 High: Thru 90% threshold SEMAFO INC SMF CN Add +20.1 MM 7.1 Med: Just thru 90% threshold SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES SSRI US Add +6.0 MM 3.2 Low: Near 90% threshold     Forecasted Deletions (~CGG CN, VGZ US, RIC US, THM US, AUMN US) Name Symbol Type Estimated Index Supply Days of ADV Conviction CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL RES CGG CN Delete -19.9 MM 29.6 Med: Right at 80% threshold VISTA GOLD CORP VGZ US Delete -6.2 MM 8.9 High: Below $75M limit RICHMONT MINES INC RIC US Delete -3.2 MM 23.8 High: Below $75M limit INTL TOWER HILL MINES LTD THM US Delete -4.4 MM 6.0 High: Below $75M limit GOLDEN MINERALS CO AUMN US Delete -3.5 MM 13.3 High: Below $75M limit