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November 22, 2022
WPIC: #Platinum forecast to be in a deficit of 303 koz in 2023 after 2022 surplus
The highlights from the World Platinum Investment Council report are the following:
Market forecast to be in a deficit of 303 koz in 2023 as global platinum demand is expected to increase by 19% (to 7,770 koz) while supply will increase by just 2% (to 7,466 koz).
Strong import volumes into China continued throughout the third quarter, contributing to ongoing physical market tightness despite the global surplus
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Investment Council Platinum Quarterly covering Q3 and FY 2022 and a first forecast for FY 2023
Total supply: Considerable headwinds have resulted in another downward revision to the original forecast for total platinum supply for 2022, which is now expected to decline by 10% year-on-year.
Automotive Demand: +12% (+329 koz) expected increase in platinum demand this year, to 2,964 koz. Platinum substitution for palladium is estimated to reach 340 koz in 2022, and just over 500 koz next year - more than double the figure in 2021 (240 koz).
Jewellery demand in 2022 is now forecast to remain unchanged year-on-year at 1,953 koz,
Industrial demand is forecast to decline by 14% (-341 koz) in 2022 versus record levels of demand in 2021, as a result of fewer capacity additions this year. Nevertheless, 2022 is set to be the third strongest year for platinum industrial demand on record, with 2,110 koz of demand.
Investment demand: Bar and coin demand is forecast to rise by 2% (+8 koz) this year to 340 koz, which will not offset outflows from exchanges (-315 koz) and ETF liquidations (-550 koz), bringing net disinvestment to 525 koz for the year. Next year, platinum bar and coin demand is forecast to jump by 49% (+167 koz) to 507 koz, a three-year high.
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