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March 10, 2021

#Gold & #Mining Stocks - Big rally yesterday

The past week saw the Gold Market in a shake-out period. The purpose is to shake out the weak holders of gold so that the commercial dealers can cover their huge short positions. The shake-out period is likely to continue for some weeks still. 

 

However, this is not a one way street. Expect sharp rallies along the way. 


One of these occurred yesterday due to the U.S. relief package having passed the US Senate and is set for approval in the House of Representatives where the Democrats hold the majority of the seats. It will then go to President Biden for his signature. 

 

Attachment 1 shows the advance yesterday from US$ 1'680 per ounce to US$ 1'720.

 

The gold stocks reacted positive. GDX (US$ 32.30) (VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF), the largest gold mining stocks ETF, advanced 2.9%, but more importantly, it left a very short bottom formation on the upside (attachment 2). MACD (lower chart) is just about to break on the upside. MACD, by not reaching the low of November 2020, gave a sign of divergence, meaning investors shouldn't trust the latest sell-off.



Attachment 3 is the daily chart of the ratio between GDX and gold futures prices. GDX broke out on the upside from a short-term falling wedge meaning gold stocks should outperform the gold price.



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