- In 2019, report forecasts global platinum demand set to increase by 5% to 7,740koz.
- Increase due to the expected significant rise in investment demand, offsetting lower forecast demand in automotive, jewellery and industrial segments.
- Total investment demand in 2019 is forecast to be 530koz, as strong growth in ETF holdings reverses the net reduction in 2018, alongside another year of strong bar and coin demand.
- Automotive demand is projected to fall at a far slower rate than in 2018, declining 3% year-on-year to 3,000koz in 2019, compared to a 7% decline in 2018. The smaller decline is partly attributable to a stabilisation of demand in light-duty diesel autocatalysts in India.
- Supply growth of 5% is forecast to exceed demand growth, resulting in the market balance rising to a surplus of 680koz.
- Recycling supply is expected to rise 3% to 1,960koz in 2019 due to an acceleration in European autocatalyst recycling, but with slower growth in the US.
We see three factors in 2019 that potentially strengthen platinum's investment case: Possible ongoing disruption of South African mining output could reduce supply; recovering Western European diesel market share may increase automotive demand; also, the significant increase in the palladium price makes future demand growth for platinum as a replacement for palladium in gasoline cars more likely.
The study can be downloaded here.
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