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January 8, 2015

What oil price is implied by oil cos stock prices? #MasterEnergy

Source: BMO

Currently, the internationals are implying the highest Brent price at $85.28 (66% above spot), while the NA integrateds aren't too far behind at $80.94.   The lower implied oil price across the spreadsheet are:   ERF, TBE, TET, CPG, ZAR and MEG (all < $60) while the highest are ATH, REN, ROSN, AREX, PVA, EGN, NOG (all > $90).  Only two stocks out of 75+ names imply a Brent price LOWER than current spot, and not much by that.  All this suggests it's probably too early to hop back into the space, while the integrateds have been a safe haven and likely don't have much upside on a technical basis. 


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