Resource Nationalism tops mining/metals risks for 2011-12—E&Y

Resource nationalism has imposed greater controls on foreign investment, mandated beneficiation, and resulted in use-it-lose-it demands and other risks to global mining, says Ernst & Young.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted:  Wednesday , 14 Sep 2011 

RENO, NV - 

Ernst & Young's latest mining and metals report cites resource nationalism as miners' top risk for 2011 while skills shortage, capital allocation and infrastructure access continue to dominate the business agenda.

In the past 12-18 months, 25 nations have increased or announced their intention to mining taxes or royalties, as some have invoked "use it or lost it" clauses.

Governments worldwide are looking to increase local participation in mining projects "and we think this trend will only increase," said the E&Y report, "Business risks facing mining and metals 2011-2012."

Among the many forms of recent resource nationalism are imposition of a resource rents; amendments to royalty or other tax rates; imposition of greater controls on foreign participation; institution of new mining codes; mandatory government/local participation; and preference for state-owned minerals. Surprisingly, E&Y considers a nation's decision to encourage in-country beneficiation of raw commodities before export to be a business risk although economists often advocate such developments.

Steps can be taken to respond to resource nationalism risks, according to the E&Y report. These include investing in transparent relationships with host government; aligning with the host government's long-term economic and political incentives; focusing on generating direct and sustainable benefits for the host community through social and community development programs; aligning with multi-lateral agencies to achieve a prominent victim status in the face of mounting resource nationalism; partner with state-owned enterprises; and encourage direct government participation in the project at market prices.

Skills shortage ranked as the second highest threat to mining and metals businesses. "Indeed, we believe it may become a bigger risk in both developed and developing countries as we move into 2012," said the report.

"The long term impact could mean increased costs, a reduction in productivity and difficulty in meeting contractual obligations," said E&Y's Louise Rolland.

Significant risks associated with skill shortages include project delays, safety, higher operational costs, and reduce productivity, the report warns. To ease these risks, mining companies can invest in training; tap broader talent pools beyond traditional channels, groups or age brackets to fill positions; fast-track careers; initiate programs that encourage semi-skilled and retired workers to re-enter the workforce; and substituting capital for labor.

Infrastructure access climbed from its sixth ranking in 2010 mining business risk to third among the2011-2012 risks. "The lack of available infrastructure means that production cannot get to the markets where the demand is," said the report.

"A lack of sufficient rail networks appear to be the largest global bottleneck," said E&Y. "However, if the sector is meet the expected supply challenges for the expected growth in demand from the rapidly developing economies, greater innovation is required to bring together producers, customers, infrastructure, operators, financiers and governments."

Maintaining a social license to operate was ranked as the fourth top risk to miners, "and it has been a more significant risk in the 2011-2012 top ten list," said E&Y. Among the issues which can affect a social license to operate are environmental performance, risk to reputation caused by safety incidents, and land disputes.

Capital project execution, which was not a major risk a year ago, now sits in the middle of the top ten risks for miners. A large number of new mining projects, expansions and restarts have almost simultaneously been announced this year.

"Tight management of major capital plans in today's mining and metals landscape of a scarcity of inputs has become more imperative than ever," said E&Y. "Addressing risks surrounding the construction of mining projects is also critical and many miners have seen cost escalations that have forced them to defer, cancel or suffer the costs of project delays and/or overruns."

Among the other top 10 risks highlighted in the report are price and currency volatility, capital allocation, cost management, interruptions to supply, and fraud and corruption.

Under the radar risks or those that did not make it into E&Y's top 10 for 2011/12 are access to secure and cost effective energy, access to capital, climate change, consolidation, project pipeline shrinkage, scarcity of water, increased regulations, new communication vehicles for community activism, and new technologies.

To read the full reports, go to www.ey.com/ca