Dr. #Copper: Sell in May?

Comment from GMR in Sydney on #Copper

Sell in May?

 

Though often incorrect, so-called sell in May has a slight tinge of truth to it, at least with respect to copper prices. On average over the last 10 years the worst month of the year for prices is May, with prices averaging -3.15%. Though we remain firm believers in the metals long-term fundamentals, it's fair to say that there do appear some shorter-term risks. For example:

 

Net Longs have collapsed:

 

 

And inventory levels are reasonably high:

 

 

Bonded inventories have also been increasing, from ~435kt in November to ~475kt now. Whether these indicators actually lead to a price correction is debatable, but at the very least it does suggest some caution is warranted. Looking at the sector on our numbers:

 

Copper Sector Valuations:  

 

 

Not overly cheap as a whole, with producing copper M&A having historically been done at 1.1x NPV

What are the steps to finding a #Mine? #Exploration #Infographic

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

Finding a new deposit is tough, but here's how to better your odds. This infographic shows the steps of mineral exploration, from prospecting to production.

Infographic: The Mineral Exploration Roadmap:







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#Lithium Expansion Talk Fills The Room @Bmo #Mining conference #BatteryMetals

Lithium expansion talk fills the room at BMO

The organisers of the BMO Metals and Mining conference added a new age metals stream to its annual event in Florida, US, this year and it ended up standing out from the crowd.

The bulk of presentations in the diversified, gold, silver, base metals and diamond streams were packed with mentions of shareholder returns, free cash flow and (at a push) brownfield expansions, but growth and investment were front and centre of the battery raw materials space. 

This was especially so on the lithium development and production side, with "essentially every company … in the middle of, or looking for funding to drive new capacity as the industry looks to satiate large expected demand increases", the bank's analysts said. 

Only FMC were up on stage presenting at the Florida conference, so we're guessing there were a few more companies in the crowd.

Unsurprisingly given the recent Morgan Stanley report that has recently been gaining attention, the big lithium debate gripping the conference was "whether the magnitude