#Uranium - U.S. DOE reduces amount brought to market, brings total supply reduction to 4.8% with Kazatomprom

Below is a comment from Cantor Fitzgerald regarding the reduction of uranium dispersed into the market. This is a very positive development,and together with the cut of uranium supply by Kazatomprom, the uranium supply to the market will be reduced by 7.6 Mio. pounds U3O8 or 4.8% beginning in early 2017.

 

We attached the longer term chart of URA, an ETF of uranium mining companies. Late last year the downtrend was broken when Kazatomprom announced production cuts. Currently URA is checking back towards the upper downtrend line. Attachment 2 shows the top holding in the URA (Global X Uranium ETF).

 

Attachment 3 shows the long-term Point&Figure chart of URA (Global X Uranium ETF). The chart indicates strong support in the US$ 12 to13 area. Long term fundamentals for uranium are excellent as demand will be outstripping supply by a wide margin.

 

Event: The U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE") has released a Secretarial Determination that notably reduces the maximum amount of uranium that can be transferred to contractors for cleanup services at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant.

 

Bottom line: Very Positive. The development is positive to the uranium sector as it reduces the amount of uranium that was being dispersed into the market by the U.S. DOE. The 2M lbs U₃O₈ equivalent for the remainder of 2017 and 3.1M lbs U₃O₈ equivalent for 2018, are notably less than the 5.5M lbs U₃O₈ equivalent that was occurring in prior years. This is effectively an annual cut of 2.4M lbs from the market for the next two years, which is about half of the annual amount cut by Kazatomprom when it announced production reductions earlier this year of about 5.2M lbs U₃O₈. That announcement spurred a rally in the uranium spot price from US$20.25/lb to a peak of US$26.00/lb, or by 28%. We believe this announcement should provide a boost to the sector.

 

·        The U.S. DOE released a Secretarial Determination for the Sale or Transfer of Uranium that stipulated maximums of 800 MTU of UF₆ for the remainder of 2017 and 1,200 MTU for 2018. In prior years the maximums were set at 2,100 MTU.

·        This translates into about 2M lbs and 3.1 M lbs of U₃O₈ equivalent for those years. With the prior maximum equating to 5.5M lbs U₃O₈ equivalent.

·        The transfers were to contractors in payment for cleanup services at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant. The maximum amount was always transferred in the past and many industry participants believed that these transfers had an adverse impact on the market as it increased spot supply.

·        Compared to the announcement of a 10% annual supply cut from Kazatomprom earlier this year (~5.2M lbs U₃O₈), the announcement by the U.S. DOE that translates into an effective annual reduction of 2.4M lbs of U₃O₈ equivalent is 46% of the size.

·        The announcement by Kazatomprom sparked a spot uranium price rally from US$20.25/lb to a peak of US$26.00/lb, or by 28%. Uranium equities across the board experienced large gains during the same period.

·        Combined, the Kazakh and U.S. DOE cuts amount to 7.6M lbs of U₃O₈ equivalent, which is 4.8% of our forecast production at the beginning of 2017.

·        Our latest supply and demand forecast under a steady state US$40/lb U₃O₈ scenario is show below. This forecast projects likely shutdowns and production curtailments if realized prices are flat-lined at US$40/lb.

 

Uranium Supply & Demand Forecast (US$40/lb scenario)

Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Canada Research

 

 

#Gold @IntegraGoldCorp $ICG

Comments from Paradigm: Integra Gold - Updates

 

·         There are currently 6 rigs operating right now, 5 on surface (4 at Triangle and 1 at Lamaque Deep), and 1 underground at Triangle. There are 8500m of surface drilling results pending, and 10,000m (10mx10m spacing) of underground infill drilling on the bulk sample area (C2) ongoing. Drilling results have been consistent (see yesterday's release) and the confidence in the deposit continues to increase.  

 

·         The underground exploration ramp is complete down to 850m and has reached the footwall of the C2 zone. Integra is on track to start the Bulk Sample in May, and have retained BBA as the independent consultant to supervise and audit the bulk sample, which is expected to mine ~25K tonnes. We estimate the production ramp up from bulk sample to production below (based off of the PEA schedule):

 

o   2017 (Bulk Sample) – 8,000Koz

o   2018 (ramp up) – 76,000oz

o   2019 (full production) – 125,000oz

 

·         The C2 structure will account for the majority of production in the first 4 years, and the infill drilling is indicating that there is still potential for upgrading: the current indicated resource grade at Triangle is 8.65gpT – The 8 infill holes released on March 22 averaged 41gpT over 6.2m (uncapped and downhole widths), and the 4 C2 holes released on April 18^th averaged 32gpT over 4.1m (uncapped and downhole widths).

 

·         We continue to view the transition from Bulk sample into production as an important de-risking element to the Integra story. The bulk sample will allow for validation of the deposit and fine-tuning during the transition on several fronts:

o   Confirm the geometry and orientation of the C2 structure

o   Confirm and reconcile the grade distribution within the C2 structure

o   Reconciliation of the resource estimates and deposit limits

o   Confirm mill performance and recoveries

 

Valuation Comments

 

-          Integra continues to rank in the top half of our Takeover Twenty rankings and trades at 0.73x NAV, in line with our emerging-developer average of 0.71x. The share price is up 55% YTD,  a reflection of management continuing to meet important milestones (positive resource update in March, ramp development on track, positive infill drilling results, bulk sample planning)

 

-          Although we view Integra as a prime takeover candidate, we are confident that Integra will meet or exceed our strong growth expectations over the next year and can comfortably  graduate into a Junior Producer.

 

-          As a comparison, we have had three graduates from our Takeover Twenty since August 2014: Guyana Goldfields (up 129% since Aug/14), Torex (up 75% since Aug/14) and Roxgold (up 52% since Aug/14). The average performance was 85%, not far off the 90% gain from companies not acquired/graduated from our Takeover Twenty in the same time frame (see our April 5^th note attached). Guyana Goldfields remains on our coverage list, and now trades at 1.13x NAV.

 

 

Emerging-Developers P/NAV

 

#Gold & #Silver #COT Commitment of Traders

Net commitments of futures traders (attachment 1) shows that large speculators (hedge funds and money managers) have increased their long gold positions. Net commercial gold dealers have increased their short positions.

 

The KITCO Gold Survey reveals that Wall Street and Retail Investors (Main Street) are bullish for this week (attachment 2).

 

The Gold Barometer shows the same pictureas last week. Gold stocks are halfway between neutral and overbought and the physical gold price is neutral (attachment 3).

 

The gold hourly chart indicates that gold had a good run last Monday and then glided down till Friday, March 31st and just gained a few dollar at the end of the trading session. As per Friday, New York time 4 p.m., gold closed at US$ 1,247 per ounce, unchanged on the week (attachment 4).

 

HUI, the ARCA Gold Bugs Index, went nowhere last week. It is still trading below the 50-day moving average and was unable to really penetrate on the upside the 200-day moving average since November 2016 (attachment 5). HUI is an index of shares of gold companies.

 

Commitment of futures traders in silver reveals that large speculators have increased their long positions and net commercial silver dealers their short positions. Historically these positions are extremely large.

 

In the first quarter of 2017 silver (+13.4%) has outperformed gold (+8.6%).

 

Over the last 6 months the gold price didn't perform well against currencies of emerging markets (see attachment 7-9). It lost 7.3% versus the Brazilian Reals, 7.5% versus the Mexican Pesos and 1.6% versus the Chinese Yuan.