#EIA launches new tool for crude #oil import analysis #MasterEnergy

EIA launches new tool for crude oil import analysis

Today EIA released a new U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool that allows policymakers, analysts, and the public to more easily track trends in crude oil imports. Users can sort and display crude oil imports by month or year, by crude type (i.e., light, medium, heavy), country source, port of entry, processing company, processing refinery, and more. The tool features graphing and mapping capabilities and a built-in help function.

Recent and forecast increases in domestic crude production have sparked discussion about how rising crude oil volumes will be absorbed. To date, a primary mechanism for absorbing increased production has been the displacement of imported crude oil, which has fallen from 8.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2011 to 7.5 million bbl/d in August 2014.

This tool sheds light on the adjustments to imports being made in response to growing production of crude oil within the United States. It is one part of EIA's ongoing effort to assess the effects of a possible relaxation of current limitations on U.S. crude oil exports, which is another avenue to accommodate domestic production growth. EIA is undertaking further work on this larger question, and expects to issue more analysis reports over the coming months.

Launched on EIA's beta site to solicit customer feedback, and incorporate that feedback into the final release, the new tool represents EIA's latest step in making energy data more accessible, understandable, relevant, and responsive to users' needs. The U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool can be found at: http://www.eia.gov/beta/petroleum/imports/browser/

Also released today is a report, EIA's U.S. Crude Oil Import Tracking Tool: Selected Sample Applications, that provides examples of the application of the new tool. The examples were selected to illustrate the tool's capabilities to access information from EIA's monthly Company Level Import database for different time periods, regions, companies, and crude oil qualities. Using the tool yielded the following insights regarding recent trends in U.S. crude oil imports:

• Volume and quality of U.S. crude oil imports: U.S. crude oil imports have declined since 2010, with nearly all of the decline occurring in light sweet grades. In particular, U.S. light crude imports fell 71% between 2010 and the period January through August 2014.

• Source of U.S. crude oil imports: Imports of light crude from Africa, particularly from Nigeria and Algeria, have declined by 93%.

• Light crude oil imports by region: The largest decline in crude oil imports occurred on the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), down 94%. Light crude oil imports by East Coast (PADD 1) refiners were down 69%, reflecting both their increased use of domestic crudes and modestly lower refinery runs.

• Refinery-level trends in light crude imports: Imports by the 10 largest refineries using imported light crude in 2013 accounted for 55% of total U.S. light crude imports, with the remaining 45% scattered among more than 100 other refineries. The largest source for light crude imports among this group of 10 refineries was Canada, followed by Nigeria and Mexico. Of these 10 refineries, 3 are located on the East Coast, 2 in the Midwest, 3 on the Gulf Coast, and 2 on the West Coast.

• Refinery-level trends in imports other than light sweet crude: There is evidence that some refineries have recently reduced imports of medium and heavy grades of crude oil in order to accommodate increasing light domestic production. Other refiners, which have made changes in processing equipment to accommodate heavier crudes, have increased their imports of such crudes.

The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in the product and press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Press Contact: Jonathan Cogan, 202-586-8719, jonathan.cogan@eia.gov

EIA-2014-10

A Chronology of #Canada's #Energy Export Plans @Stratfor

The defeat of TransCanada's Keystone XL project in the U.S. Senate on Nov. 18 is unlikely to be the final word on the controversial pipeline.

A Chronology of Canada's Energy Export Plans

Analysis

Editor's Note: In light of the defeat of the Keystone XL bill in congress Nov. 18, 59 - 41 votes in favor, we have assembled a chronology of Stratfor's recent analyses on the matter of Canada's fast-evolving energy transportation plans with the rest of North America.

The defeat of TransCanada's Keystone XL project in the U.S. Senate on Nov. 18 is unlikely to be the final word on the controversial pipeline. Lack of Senate endorsement is anticipated to be only a temporary delay to the Keystone XL approval bill working its way through Congress. The proposed bill will be one of the first things on the agenda in 2015. The Republican win in November's general elections appears to have given the bill a filibuster-proof number of supporters, meaning it will likely appear on the president's desk next year.

It is important to remember, however, that Keystone XL is far from the only option available to Canada. Ottawa currently has three outstanding proposals with potential backing. The Pacific Ocean-based TransMountain Expansion and the Northern Gateway pipelines face significant hurdles in British Colombia, but going east, Canada also has the potential Energy East pipeline, which faces less domestic opposition yet is large scale and expensive.

Even in the United States, Keystone XL is only one of many options. Enbridge's Alberta Clipper pipeline from Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin, is being expanded to 570,000 barrels per day with a further application in process to increase its capacity to 800,000 bpd. Unfortunately for Enbridge, like Keystone XL, the second expansion has been frozen at the State Department level. In another effort to get oil downstream to Texas, Enbridge has built pipelines running to Cushing, Oklahoma — the most recent conduit to come online being the Flanagan South pipeline from Pontiac, Illinois, to Cushing, Oklahoma.

For Canada, pipelines are important, but right now, even with low oil prices, many Canadian producers are getting higher returns than they did earlier. Other pipeline alternatives and increased rail capacity has reduced the differential between Canadian oil prices and global oil prices, meaning, in some respects, that the Canadian price hasn't really dropped despite lower global prices. At the same time, however, the Canadian dollar has weakened against the U.S. dollar, meaning that the incentives for Ottawa to improve energy flows to the United States remain heightened. Pipeline and energy sector concerns will be the heart of Canada's next national elections in October 2015.

Read the rest of the article online on Stratfor here:  A Chronology of Canada's Energy Export Plans | Stratfor

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#Mexico: #Pemex Signs MOU With #Chinese Firms #MasterEnergy @Stratfor

The race is on in Mexico's oil sector opening.

From Stratfor 

Mexico: Pemex Signs Memorandums Of Understanding With Chinese Firms November 13, 2014 | 2242 GMT Mexican state-owned energy firm Petroleos Mexicanos, commonly referred to as Pemex, has signed three memorandums of understanding with Chinese firms, according to a Nov. 13 company press release. Pemex and Chinese state energy firm China National Offshore Oil Corp. signed an agreement on exploration and production of heavy crude and mature oil fields. It also signed an accord with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for a $10 billion line of credit to fund upstream projects and acquisition of equipment for offshore areas. A second line of credit with the China Development Bank to fund upstream projects was also agreed upon