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June 18, 2013

#Gartman: #Gold Is A Broken Commodity


"People forget that the high in gold is now almost two years behind us,” says Gartman. “We’ve broken all trend lines. We’ve broken all support. Gold, in dollar terms, is a broken commodity.”

#Gartman: #Gold Is A Broken Commodity
Dennis Gartman, Founder and Publisher of the Gartman Letter, has some thoughts on gold and gold bulls.
Dennis Gartman, Founder and Publisher of the Gartman Letter, thinks gold is going down.
“People forget that the high in gold is now almost two years behind us,” says Gartman. “We’ve broken all trend lines. We’ve broken all support. Gold, in dollar terms, is a broken commodity.”
To those cheering on the yellow metal, Gartman has bad news. “It’s probably going to head lower, not higher, despite all of the news that the monetary authorities are expanding the supply of reserves to the system,” he says. “Every gold bull knows that. Every gold bug reiterates that. Every gold bug continues to buy gold. And, they continue to lose a lot of money.”
Gartman has particular levels he’s watching. “The first signs of support may well be $1,200. If it starts to break under $1,200, I’m sorry but there’s not much support until you do get to $1,000,” he says. “The trend seems to be downward and those who are buyers find themselves in a very uncomfortable position.”
“Like an aging athlete, [gold] just keeps faltering. It cannot just quite get across the line to catch that pass any longer than it used to be able to do very readily,” says Gartman. “Even with all of the news that is supposedly as bullish of gold as you can get – a weakening dollar at times, continued monetary expansion by every central bank in the world – gold can’t rally.”
What’s a gold bull to do? Gartman has an idea.
“The oldest rule in commodity trading is, when something can’t rally when the news is bullish, it’s a bear market.”
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Gartman: Gold Is A Broken Commodity | Talking Numbers - Yahoo! Finance

The MasterMetals Blog

June 17, 2013

Chart of the Week: #India Declares War on #Gold Sprott







Chart of the Week: India Declares War on Gold



David Franklin


Sprott Asset Management LP





With the Indian rupee plumbing new lows against the US dollar and the country’s current account deficit at record levels, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is taking the easiest route to tackle both; it has declared a war on gold. Our Chart of the Week shows the Indian current account deficit from 1970 to the end of 2012. As you can see, it has hit a record deficit level and continues to weaken. Put simply, a current account deficit occurs when a country's total imports of goods is greater than its total export of goods; this situation makes a country a net debtor to the rest of the world. India is the largest consumer of gold, almost all of which is imported and is a significant contributor to this deficit.


The RBI has drawn the battle lines and targeted gold imports as the main culprit. The central bank has announced a series of measures over the past month, including restraining lending against gold-backed assets, and restricting gold imports. The hike in gold import duty to 8% this month is the most recent announcement in this drive and doubles the duty that was applied at the beginning of this year.1 The RBI has asked bank trading houses not to import gold on a consignment basis for domestic sales, further insisting on 100% cash margin for letters of credit. The restrictions were invoked after imports soared to 162 tonnes in May from 142 tonnes in April on the back of weak international prices. In their campaign against gold imports the Indian finance minister P. Chidambaram has even urged banks to advise their customers not to invest in gold. “I think the Reserve Bank has advised banks that they should not sell gold coins,” said Chidambaram, while speaking at an event in Mumbai.2


Gold is synonymous with savings and security for many of India's 1.24 billion people. Only about 36,000 of India's 650,000 villages have a bank branch, which mean the working class hold much of their assets in gold coins and jewelry. Further increasing demand is gold’s cultural significance which makes it essential for weddings and other ceremonies. We suspect that there is very little the RBI can do to supress the consumption of gold and the central bank’s efforts will serve only to push the gold trade underground through smuggling and off-shore trading centres.






Source: Bloomberg, Sprott Asset Management LP









1 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Government-raises-import-duty-on-gold-to-8/articleshow/20452631.cms


2 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/india-gold-idUSD8N0E900920130606






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Chart of the Week: India Declares War on Gold Sprott

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