2013 #BP World #Energy #Outlook 2030 Part 2 - Supply

Asia Pacific will account for nearly half of global growth. Together Shale Oil & Gas will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.

The latest BP World Energy Outlook 2030 is out.  Here are some excerpts from the report.

Asia Pacific for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030

World primary energy production growth matches consumption, growing by 1.6% p.a. from 2011 to 2030.
As is the case for energy consumption, growth in production will be dominated by the non-OECD countries, which will account for 78% of the world’s increase.These countries will supply 71% of global energy production in 2030, up from 69% in 2011 and 58% in 1990.
The Asia Pacific region, the largest regional energy producer, shows the most rapid growth rate (2.2% p.a.), due to large indigenous coal production, and accounts for 48% of global energy production growth. The region provides 35% of global energy production by 2030. The Middle East and North America contribute the next largest increments for supply growth; and North America remains the second largest regional energy producer.
Energy production will grow in all regions but Europe.

The Shale Oil & Gas Revolution

High prices are also supporting the expansion of supply, and not just from conventional sources – the development and deployment of new technologies across a range of energy sources is opening up new supply opportunities at scale.
The “shale revolution”, first for gas and then for oil, is an example of this. From 2011 to 2030 shale gas more than trebles and tight oil grows more than six-fold.Together they will account for almost a fifth of the increase in global energy supply to 2030.
High prices for fossil fuels also support the expansion of non-fossil energy. Renewable energy supply more than trebles from 2011 to 2030, accounting for 17% of the increase in global energy supply. Hydro and nuclear together account for another 17% of the growth.

Despite all the growth from shale, renewables and other sources, conventional fossil fuel supplies are still required to expand, providing almost half the growth in energy supply. 

The MasterMetals Blog

2013 #BP World #Energy #Outlook 2030 Part 1 - Demand

Population growth in Emerging Economies will make up 90% of global energy demand growth.

The latest BP World Energy Outlook 2030 is out.  Here are some excerpts from the report.

Population and income growth underpin growing energy consumption

Population and income growth are the key drivers behind growing demand for energy. By 2030 world population is projected to reach 8.3 billion, which means an additional 1.3 billion people will need energy; and world income in 2030 is expected to be roughly double the 2011 level in real terms.
World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a. from 2011 to 2030, adding 36% to global consumption by 2030.The growth rate declines, from 2.5% p.a. for 2000-10, to 2.1% p.a. for 2010-20, and 1.3% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.
Low and medium income economies outside the OECD account for over 90% of population growth to 2030. Due to their rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and motorisation, they also contribute 70% of the global GDP growth and over 90% of the global energy demand growth.

Industrialisation and growing power demand increase the world’s appetite for primary energy

Almost all (93%) of the energy consumption growth is in non-OECD countries. Non-OECD energy consumption in 2030 is 61% above the 2011 level, with growth averaging 2.5% p.a. (or 1.5% p.a. per capita), accounting for 65% of world consumption (compared to 53% in 2011).
OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 6% higher than in 2011 (0.3% p.a.), and will decline in per capita terms (-0.2% p.a. 2011-30).
Energy used for power generation grows by 49% (2.1% p.a.) 2011-30, and accounts for 57% of global primary energy growth. Primary energy used directly in industry grows by 31% (1.4% p.a.), accounting for 25% of the growth of primary energy consumption.
The fastest growing fuels are renewables (including biofuels) with growth averaging 7.6% p.a. 2011-30. Nuclear (2.6% p.a.) and hydro (2.0% p.a.) both grow faster than total energy. Among fossil fuels, gas grows the fastest (2.0% p.a.), followed by coal (1.2% p.a.), and oil (0.8% p.a.). 

Source: 2013 BP World Energy Outlook

The MasterMetals Blog

Rio Tinto CEO pays price of calamitous acquisitions | Reuters $RIO

Rio Tinto sacked chief executive Tom Albanese on Thursday and revealed a $14 billion (8 billion pounds) writedown in connection with his two most significant acquisitions, Mozambican coal and the Alcan aluminium group.

Rio Tinto CEO pays price of calamitous acquisitions

9:23am GMT

By Clara Ferreira-Marques
LONDON (Reuters) - Rio Tinto sacked chief executive Tom Albanese on Thursday and revealed a $14 billion (8 billion pounds) writedown in connection with his two most significant acquisitions, Mozambican coal and the Alcan aluminium group.
A mining heavyweight who joined Rio two decades ago, Albanese will be replaced by iron ore boss Sam Walsh. Doug Ritchie, who led the acquisition and integration of the Mozambican coal assets, was also shown the door.
Alaska-trained Albanese had until now survived the consequences of his disastrous $38 billion acquisition of Alcan in 2007, a bruising top-of-the-market deal when Rio was under pressure from rivals to bulk up or be acquired.
The deal turned bad as markets crumbled and aluminium prices slumped. Rio has since seen years of losses in aluminium and taken billions in impairments - it had already taken an $8.9 billion charge on those struggling assets a year ago.
Walsh was welcomed by investors and analysts as a safe pair of hands, but many questioned whether the veteran would be a long-term solution for the group, and raised concerns over management of a group that also announced the departure of its chief financial officer last July.
"It's another black mark in terms of (Albanese's) M&A record and I suppose, given the magnitude of this writedown ... I'm not surprised that he's stepping down with this, nor am I surprised that Doug Ritchie is," analyst Jeff Largey at Macquarie said.
Rio had planned to shrink the aluminium division by hiving off most of its Australian and New Zealand assets, but industry sources say it has not been mobbed by buyers.
Albanese then spearheaded a deal to buy Mozambique-focused coal miner Riversdale in 2011, fighting off rival bids from steelmakers. There, however, Rio has come up against infrastructure problems more challenging than anticipated.
News of Albanese's departure and the writedown, more than twice its 2011 profit, took the market by surprise, knocking Rio shares down 2.5 percent to 3,372 pence in early London trading.
"I wasn't expecting the $14 billion writedown," said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager at Pengana Capital, which owns Rio Tinto shares. He said the departures pointed to a company under pressure to do a better job of managing its purse strings.
"I think it's clearly a case of the board's laid down the law in terms of stricter accountability than we had pre-(crisis)," he said.
TAKING THE HIT
Rio said on Thursday the impairments would include a charge of around $3 billion relating to the Mozambique business, as well as reductions in the carrying values of Rio's aluminium assets in the range of $10 billion to $11 billion.
The group also expects to report a number of smaller asset writedowns in the order of $500 million. The final figures will be included in Rio Tinto's full year results on February 14.
"It is non-cash, it doesn't impact valuation, it doesn't impact the earnings near term. But (flagship Mongolian copper-gold mine) Oyu Tolgoi's still to plan," said one London analyst who declined to be named. "For me, it's clearly negative, but it's not the end of the world."
Neither Albanese nor Ritchie will take lump-sum payments and both will forfeit bonuses on departure, including outstanding bonus share entitlements earned in previous years.
Albanese is the latest chief executive of a major mining company, many of whom took the reins in 2007, to step down or announce his departure. BHP Billiton has said it is seeking a replacement for chief executive Marius Kloppers, and Anglo American has replaced chief executive Cynthia Carroll.
(Additional reporting by Sonali Paul in Melbourne, Jim Regan in Sydney and Sarah Young in London)

© Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved.

Rio Tinto CEO pays price of calamitous acquisitions | Reuters

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