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February 16, 2012

Special report: For Iran oil trader, Western ties run deep | Reuters

Special report: For Iran oil trader, Western ties run deep

Photo
9:16am EST
By Emma Farge, Chris Vellacott and Stephen Grey
LONDON (Reuters) - The newspaper notice sat next to advertisements for tarot-card readings, Alcoholics Anonymous meetings and children's tap-dancing lessons. The Naftiran Intertrade Company, an oil-trading firm owned by the Iranian government, announced plans to close its registered headquarters in the British tax haven of Jersey and move to a tax haven in Asia.
That advertisement, in a Jersey newspaper last September, came as Iranian companies were stepping up efforts to get around Western sanctions designed to slow or stop Iran's nuclear program. But the Iranian oil trader's retreat from the West has been only a partial one.
Reuters has learned that on February 1, Naftiran Intertrade increased its holding in British oil giant BP Plc by 1.85 million shares. It now holds a stake worth more than $190 million.
In addition to the shareholding, the Iranian company's ties to BP include the Rhum gas field in the North Sea, a venture that's now suspended due to sanctions. It also has active projects like a gas field with BP in Azerbaijan, and an investment with Royal Dutch Shell in fuel distribution in Senegal.
An examination of the operations of Naftiran Intertrade, or NICO as it is known, shows just how difficult it is for Western companies to untangle their ties with Iran. NICO is under pressure to leave Europe, but it has a web of assets, joint ventures and relationships with Western firms that will likely prove difficult and expensive for either side to break.
A spokesman at BP said the company would not comment on individual shareholders. "However we regularly review and take legal advice to ensure our compliance with sanctions legislation. We remain confident that BP is in full compliance with all applicable sanctions regimes including UN, EU regulations and US law, and will remain in compliance," he said. "We continue to monitor the situation closely."
NIOC and NICO did not respond to requests for comment.
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SPECIAL REPORT-Iran's cat-and-mouse game on sanctions: link.reuters.com/daf66s
SPECIAL REPORT-For Iran oil trader, Western ties run deep in PDF: link.reuters.com/vyj66s
Graphic showing changes to IRISL fleet over past four years: link.reuters.com/faf66s
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"A BIT TOO CLOSE"
NICO jumped from Jersey before it was pushed. The firm, which is essentially the offshore arm of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), dissolved its base on the Channel isle on January 8 with a "certificate of continuance" that indicated it would move to the tax haven of Labuan, an island off the coast of Malaysia.
"The company decided it would be best to move their business elsewhere," said a person close to the Jersey government. "They were aware of government concerns. They had very close links to the Iranian regime, a bit too close."
A spokesman for Jersey's financial regulator JFSC declined to comment.
NICO has been under U.S. sanctions since 2008, deemed an entity "owned or controlled by the Government of Iran." It had moved its headquarters to Jersey from London in 1991, after decades of operations in Britain in the days before Iran's Islamic revolution and "long before the days when (Britain) grew a conscience," as one veteran oil trader put it.
The National Iranian Oil Company relies on NICO as an important source of foreign exchange. If NICO was to shut altogether, analysts say, it would starve the NIOC of cash and put it at the mercy of Iran's squabbling political elites and clerics.
"NICO is a way for the National Iranian Oil Company to raise capital without having to rely on budget allocations approved by the Iranian government," said Valerie Marcel, an associate fellow at think tank Chatham House and an expert in nationally owned oil companies.
To get around the sanctions, NICO uses offshore financial havens and a web of asset and industrial holdings in the West. While it was based in Jersey, the firm operated through a "service company" based in Switzerland. But even there, in a country that has not yet signed up to the trade sanctions against Iran, the company's future could be in doubt.
LAKESIDE OUTPOST
Tucked behind a pebble beach on Lake Geneva in Pully, a chic suburb of Lausanne, NICO's remaining active European base is housed in a five-storey glass and marble office block. The office was set up in 2002 after the company moved its oil trading and energy investment activities to Switzerland from London.
A profile page on professional networking website LinkedIn states that NICO's Swiss office has between 11-50 employees; one of those workers posted that the firm's annual trading profit was $23 billion, although this figure could not be independently verified.
NICO's Swiss base has played a key role in maintaining an international presence beyond the reach of Western powers seeking to choke it, say oil traders familiar with its operations.
Switzerland is neutral and not a member of the European Union. It is also divided into semi-autonomous 'cantons' which compete with each other to attract companies and are often reluctant to interfere in their affairs.
Officials in the canton of Vaud, which contains Lausanne, said they saw no reason for NICO to leave.
"It's not because of cowardice or indifference, it's just that we don't have the authority or the right to have a position on foreign policy," said an official in the canton's department for economic development.
That could change. Switzerland tends to copy sanctions passed by its largest trade partner, the European Union, and trade experts think that it will eventually pass a law aimed at curtailing the "import, purchase or transport" of Iranian oil.
But even then, pressure on NICO's Swiss hub could be blunted by the realities of Switzerland's special status as a neutral nation in international affairs, as well as a variety of loopholes.
A former Swiss diplomat now working in Brussels said that "the general plan has been for Switzerland to try to converge on what the EU does, but Iran is a case of its own."
Historically, Switzerland has helped the U.S. in its relations with Iran, he said. "I think the Swiss will be extremely careful about taking any decision on this matter. The overriding concern is the representation of U.S. interests and Switzerland's role as a go-between although this has been a difficult undertaking for years."
To avoid creating a loophole in the EU sanctions regime "the trading functions (of Iranian companies) could be moved elsewhere," he said.
LONDON HEYDAY
NICO's roots in Europe are deep. Its former European hub in London is a sparsely occupied seven-floor building a few doors down from New Scotland Yard and within sight of Westminster Abbey. It still belongs to parent company NIOC, according to Land Registry documents.

February 10, 2012

Ghana sets up committee to review mining contracts - FAST NEWS | Mineweb

Ghana sets up committee to review mining contracts

The country has set up a committee to review and renegotiate stability investment agreements with mining companies, a senior government official said Thursday.

Posted: Thursday , 09 Feb 2012

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) -

Ghana, Africa's second-largest gold mining state, has set up a committee to review stability investment agreements with mining houses, a senior government official said on Thursday.

"It will include all companies that have stability agreements," Benjamin Aryee, the chief executive of Ghana's Minerals Commission, told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Cape Town.

"Ghana believes in the sanctity of contracts. But in all contracts there are review provisions," he said.

Ghana's Finance Minister initially unveiled the plan to review mining stability agreements in October. The government has since detailed plans to raise the corporate mining tax to 35 percent from 25 percent and introduce a 10 percent windfall tax as well to boost the state share of revenues.

The country set up a committee to review and renegotiate mining contracts last week.

Mining companies that have had stability agreements in Ghana include South African-based AngloGold Ashanti, the world's third largest gold producer.

Gold Fields, the world's fourth largest gold producer company, has said such a move might kill planned projects that could bring $1 billion of investment into the West African nation.

Ghana's review comes against the backdrop of a surge of resource nationalism across Africa as governments aim to extract move revenue from a sector that has failed to translate mineral wealth into broad prosperity.

(Reporting by Ed Stoddard, editing by Richard Valdmanis)

© Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved

Disclaimer

MINEWEB is an interactive publication, with rolling deadlines through each day, commencing in the Sydney morning, and concluding, 24 hours later, in the Vancouver evening. If you believe your side of an issue deserves inclusion, but has failed to meet one of our deadlines, you are invited to notify the Editor in Chief in Johannesburg, and we will include you in our editing and expanding on our stories. Email him at alechogg@gmail.com



Mineweb.com - The world's premier mining and mining investment website Ghana sets up committee to review mining contracts - FAST NEWS | Mineweb

The MasterMetals Blog

February 9, 2012

Ben Bernanke is Every Gold Bug's Best Friend - Money Morning

Ben Bernanke is Every Gold Bug's Best Friend

After prices fell 10% in December, many investors wondered if the bull market in gold was running out of steam.

That was before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke swooped in with a "red cape" and fired the bulls back up.

Since the Fed reassured the world that interest rates will remain at "exceptionally low levels" for another two years, gold has jumped more than 3%.

UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) described the situation simply, "if investors needed a (further) reason why they should be long gold now, they got it yesterday ... a more accommodative policy is a very good foundation for gold to build on the next move higher."

To gold bugs, two more years of near-zero, short-term interest rates means negative real interest rates are here to stay, and this has historically been a strong driver for higher gold prices.

Bernanke and the Fed aren't the only central bankers in the fiscal and monetary bullring.

Brazil has cut its benchmark interest rate a few times and China lowered its reserve rate for banks in December. According to ISI Group, 78 "easing moves" have been announced around the world in just the past five months as countries look to stimulate economic activity.

One of the main weapons central bankers have employed is money supply, which has created a ton of liquidity in the global system. Global money supply rose 8% year-over-year in December, or about $4 trillion, according to ISI. I mentioned a few weeks ago how China experienced a record increase in the three-month change in M-2 money supply following China's reserve rate cut.

Together, negative real interest rates and growing global money supply power the Fear Trade for gold. The pressure these two factors put on paper currencies motivates investors from Baby Boomers to central bankers to hold gold as an alternate currency.

Central Banks are Loading Up on Gold
Adrian Ash from Bullionvault says global central banks are on a buying spree and they have been since the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in 2007. Central bankers' shift to buying gold was a significant sea change for the yellow metal.

You can see from the chart below that official gold reserves have historically been much higher, averaging around 35,000 tons. In the 1990s, central banks began selling, with reserves hitting a 30-year low right around the time the Fed began cutting rates. Ash says that gold holdings are now at a six-year high with the current amount of gold reserves just less than 31,000 tons.

These are countries large and small. In December, Russia, which has been routinely adding to the country's gold reserves since 2005, purchased nearly 10 tons; Kazakhstan purchased 3.1 tons and Mongolia bought 1.2 tons. UBS says "although reported volumes are not very large, it is still an extension of the official sector accumulation trend."

Record Increase in China's M-2 Money Supply

Not all central banks are recent buyers, though. The "debt-heavy West" has sold its gold holdings, while emerging markets increased their gold reserves 25 % by weight since 2008, says Ash.

Reserves as a percent of all the gold mined has also declined, with "a far greater tonnage of gold ... finding its way into private ownership," says Adrian. Since 1979, you can see the percentage of reserves to total gold has declined at a much faster pace as individuals increasingly perceived gold as a financial asset.

Ash points to China's Gold Accumulation Plan as a recent example of this trend. A joint effort between the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the World Gold Council (WGC), the program allows Chinese citizens to buy gold in small increments as a way to build up their gold holdings over time. The WGC reported in September that the program had established 2 million accounts during its first few months in operation and the amount is growing by the day.

These programs open the door for gold as an investment to a whole new class of people in China but that's only a fraction of the tremendous demand for gold that we are seeing from China.

Gold and the "Love Trade"

In addition to the Fear Trade, gold is driven by the Love Trade, which is the strong cultural affinity the East, namely China and India, has to the precious metal.

In 2010, the Indian Sub Continent and East Asia made up nearly 60% of the world's gold demand and 66% of the world's gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC.

Indian jewelry demand has historically increased during the Shradh period of the Hindu calendar, but last year, high prices and a volatile rupee kept many Indian buyers on the sideline.

If you thought $1,900 was too much to pay for an ounce of gold, imagine how Indians felt when the rupee fell against the U.S. dollar, causing a gold price spike in rupees. Gold in Indian rupee terms rose more than 35% from July to November, roughly three times the magnitude of gold priced in U.S. dollars, yuan or yen.

This currency swing significantly impacted Indian gold imports, which dropped 56% in the fourth quarter, according to data from the Bombay Bullion Association.

Record Increase in China's M-2 Money Supply

"Indian buyers will be back" after they adjust to the higher prices, says Fred Hickey. In one of his latest editions of "The High-Tech Strategist," he cites late 2007 as a recent example when the Indian gold market experienced a similar rough patch.

That year, gold demand in India fell off a cliff after prices spiked more than $1,000 an ounce in one quarter, tarnishing the country's love affair with gold for a "brief period." Fred says their cultural affinity for gold as an important store of wealth and protection against inflation will drive Indian buyers back into the market.

The trend was already changing in 2012, as UBS reported that the first day of trading saw physical sales to India were twice what they usually are, according to Hickey. Although this is a very short time frame, I believe the buying trend will continue in this gold-loving country.

In China, "just as in India, gold is seen as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation," says Hickey. Demand has been growing, especially in the third quarter, when China's gold purchases outpaced India. "Physical demand for gold from the Chinese has been voracious all year," says Hickey. As of the third quarter, China had already obtained 612 tons, eclipsing its total 2010 demand, according to the WGC.

Across the Chinese retail sector, gold, silver and jewelry demand was the strongest performing segment in 2011, says JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) in its "Hands-On China Report."

Growth in this segment far outpaced clothing and footwear, household electrical appliances, and even food, beverage, tobacco and liquor, all of which experienced more modest growth.

China Copper Inventories Bouncing Off Two-year Low

JPMorgan says the bulk of the increase came from lower-tier cities "where income levels are rising the fastest and improvements in retail infrastructure have allowed for rapid store expansion."

Increasing incomes coupled with government policies that support growth have been the main drivers for rising gold prices. Take a look at the chart below, which shows the strong correlation between incomes in China and India and the gold price. As residents in these countries acquire higher incomes, they have historically purchased more gold, driving gold prices higher.

The 'China Effect' on Commodities

We anticipated that the Year of the Dragon would spur an increase in the buying of traditional gifts of gold dragon pendants and coins. Gold buying did hit new records, says Mineweb, with sales of precious metals jumping nearly 50% from the same time last year, according to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce.

This should serve as a warning to all of gold's naysayers.

Gold bullfighters beware - you now have to fight the gold bull while fending off a golden Chinese dragon.

[Editor's Note: Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in natural resources, emerging markets and infrastructure.

Holmes was 2006 mining fund manager of the year for Mining Journal, a leading publication for the global resources industry, and he is co-author of "The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing."

He has been profiled by Fortune, Barron's, The Financial Times and other publications.

If you want commentary and analysis from Holmes and the rest of the U.S. Global Investors team delivered to your inbox every Friday, sign up to receive the weekly Investor Alert at www.usfunds.com.]


Ben Bernanke is Every Gold Bug's Best Friend - Money Morning

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