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August 3, 2011

Is Gold A Bubble? 14 Charts, The Facts And The Data Suggest Not

Is Gold A Bubble? 14 Charts, The Facts And The Data Suggest Not

For more than 3 years - since gold rose above its nominal high of $850/oz in February 2008 - there has been much talk about gold being a bubble. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, is one of the more prominent financial and economic experts who said gold was a bubble and many other experts internationally echoed his sentiments. On December 10th, 2009, with gold at $1,100 per ounce, Roubini, said, "all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they're just speaking nonsense". Roubini went on to say ,"I don't believe in gold." Gold has now risen 50% since then and Roubini has been silent on the gold price. We believe that he was wrong regarding gold as he, like many in the western world, is simply not aware of the facts and the fundamentals driving the gold market. He also is not aware of gold's diversification benefits. The fundamental drivers of the gold market are not appreciated by most and rapidly get forgotten by many due to the daily barrage of noise and fear emanating from the markets. The facts and charts below strongly suggest gold is not a bubble. However, even if it were a bubble, those calling gold a bubble should acknowledge the diversification benefits of owning gold and urge diversification rather than vainly trying to predict the future and the future movement of asset prices.

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August 2, 2011

Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold?

Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold? - Yahoo! Finance

--- The short answer is Yes, as this simply legalizes their continued spending...

It was quite the day for markets as a debt ceiling deal played with emotions.  The Dow , which initially jumped over 100 points at the open, finished the day down 10 points. The U.S. Dollar received a boost as markets are somehow feeling reassured about the government's ability to borrow more money.   Gold and silver also closed the day lower.

Although precious metals were down, there is a strong upward channel in gold.  The chart below shows the rise in gold prices over the past couple years.  Even though critics of gold will quickly call an end to gold's run on a decline, investors should keep the big picture in mind.  Gold continues to receive buying support as it nears the bottom of this channel. Even if gold declines to $1550, the longer-term technical trend looks strong.

As our Gold and Silver Premium Newsletter readers know, despite the temporary pullback in gold and silver, the debt deal is actually bullish for precious metals.  The debt deal allows the government to continue its massive spending and debt cycle, which will cause investors to seek out protection from the U.S. Dollar.  Furthermore, someone has to purchase government bonds, and the Federal Reserve is the most likely candidate.  The past two quantitate easing programs from the Fed paved the way for all time record gold prices, just imagine where QE 3 will put gold at in the near future.

Investors looking to hold metal miners in their portfolio may want to consider gold plays such as AngloGold , Newmont Mining , or Market Vectors Jr Gold Miners ETF .  Silver miners include First Majestic Silver , Endeavour Silver , and Global X Silver Miners ETF .

For more analysis on our support levels and ranges for gold and silver, consider a free 14-day trial to our acclaimed Gold & Silver Investment Newsletter.

Disclosure: Long AGQ.



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Bank of Korea buys 25 tonnes of gold

Bank of Korea buys 25 tonnes of gold

In what is its first gold purchase in more than a decade the Bank of Korea says it spent more than $1bn over the past two months in order to diversify its holdings away from reserve currencies like the dollar and the euro

Author: Yoo Choonsik and Kim Yeonhee (Reuters)
Posted:  Tuesday , 02 Aug 2011

SEOUL (Reuters) - 

South Korea spent more than a billion dollars in its first gold purchase in more than a decade, as uncertainty about global growth and sovereign debt push central banks around the world to diversify foreign reserves.

A brittle global economic recovery and precarious debt conditions in the United States and Europe have boosted the safe-haven appeal of gold, lifting bullion to a record high on Friday.

The Bank of Korea said in a statement on Tuesday it bought 25 tonnes of gold over the past two months, raising its gold holding to 39.4 tonnes, news that helped lift spot gold by around $6 from late Monday.

Reserve currencies, like the dollar and euro, "have been losing their clout since the recent global financial crisis partly due to abnormal monetary policy adopted in many countries and fiscal deficit problems," said an official at the central bank who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

Data on 27 major economies from the Bank for International Settlements shows the dollar's inflation-adjusted real effective value has dropped by 10 percent in the past two years and the euro has lost 6 percent, reflecting the sharp increase in the amount of each currency in circulation.

South Korea's gold holdings remain far smaller than that of other Asian central banks, with China, which ranks sixth globally, the biggest with 1,054.1 tonnes by the end of May, according to World Gold Council data.

Japan, No. 9 globally, has 765.2 tonnes of gold, or 3.3 percent of its total reserves, and 11th-ranked India has 557.7 tonnes, or 8.7 percent.

"South Korea's central bank seems a little late to the party, but gold investors should continue to expect price support as central bankers around the world are underinvested in the yellow stuff," said Sean McGillivray, head of asset allocation at Great Pacific Wealth Management.

"Investors and central bankers are looking to protect purchasing power, diversifying into the currency of last resort, gold."

With prices hovering near historic highs, the central bank of Asia's fourth-largest economy said gold looked less lucrative as an investment, but it was the right time to buy the precious metal because its foreign reserves had risen above $300 billion.

The news helped boost gold prices, with spot up 0.4 percent at $1,623.94 an ounce by 0528 GMT. Gold hit a record high of $1,632.30 on Friday.

"Any news about central banks buying gold reassures consumers and other major players who are already looking at gold as an investment," said Jeffrey Pritchard, analyst at California-based commodities futures and options brokerage Altavest Worldwide Trading.

CONDITIONS RIPE FOR GOLD PURCHASE

The Bank of Korea said its latest gold purchase was valued at $1.24 billion. It did not say whether it had bought gold bullion or funds, or whether it plans to buy more gold.

The purchase comes weeks before the central bank is due to face an annual parliamentary audit, expected in September, and after several South Korean lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition parties have repeatedly called for it to boost holdings of gold to diversify reserves.

At 25 tonnes of gold, equivalent to 803,769 ounces, the average price paid comes to around $1,543 an ounce, based on Reuters calculations.

A BoK official said it was the bank's first gold purchase since at least the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis when patriotic Koreans collected the precious metal as part of a campaign to boost the country's foreign reserves, when it was on the verge of a sovereign default.

"The country had too small an amount of foreign reserves to diversify into gold before 2004 and was not able to buy gold between 2005 and 2007 due to concerns about the central bank's annual losses," the Bank of Korea said.

"Now that our total reserves topped $300 billion and foreign exchange markets stabilised, we judged that conditions were ripe for us to increase gold holding."

The increased gold holding would put South Korea in 45th position in the World Gold Council's list of central banks holding gold, up from 56th previously, the Bank of Korea said.

The United States has the biggest gold holding in its reserves, at 8,133.5 tonnes, or 74.7 percent of total reserves, according to the WGC's July report. Germany is a distant second with 3,401 tonnes, or 71.7 percent of its total reserves.

The Bank of Korea declined to disclose the purchase price but said it had entrusted all of its gold holding to the Bank of England for possible use in gold lending and other related transactions.

Including the gold, South Korea's foreign reserves rose by $6.55 billion in July to $311.03 billion, equivalent to about 30 percent of the country's annual gross domestic product of just more than $1 trillion in 2010.

South Korea's foreign reserves ranked seventh in the world as of the end of June, the central bank said.

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