Ivanhoe: The New Numbers Matter
Figure 1:Ivanhoe's revenue projections show significant upside from commodity price strength, with current spot prices adding +421M (19.3%) in 2026F and +727M (21.7%) in 2027F versus the original November 2025 price deck.
Following Ivanhoe's updates on Platreef & Kamoa, and given the run-up in metals prices since last year, it's probably a good time to take a look at what this means for the bottom line ahead of full 2026 Guidance next month. The market seems to be valuing Ivanhoe Mines on old volumes, at old prices. The reality is lower volumes, yes, but at much, much higher prices.
When Ivanhoe reset Kamoa-Kakula production guidance on December 3, 2025, the market rightly punished the stock for a 27% copper cut in 2026. But since that guidance release, every single commodity in Ivanhoe's basket has appreciated materially, generating a $421M revenue uplift in 2026 and, at current spot prices, a $727M windfall in 2027—entirely from price strength, not volume growth. There are also a couple of (positive) surprises hiding inside that it seems nobody's modeling.
Let's take a look under the hood.
The Numbers
Without mining a single additional tonne, Ivanhoe's 2027 revenue grows by $727M purely from commodity price appreciation vs. the November 2025 estimates.
| 2026F | 2026F at Old Prices | 2026F at Spot | Uplift |
| Total Revenue | $2,178M | $2,599M | +$421M (+19.3%) |
| 2027F | 2027F at Old Prices | 2027F at Spot | Uplift |
| Total Revenue | $3,347M | $4,074M | +$727M (+21.7%) |
Millions USD. Previous from November 2025 estimates. Spot Prices Jan. 16, 2026. All production figures attributable to Ivanhoe; volumes held constant at December 2025 guidance.
