I would be looking to buy on the inevitable weakness in the share price on the back of this. It is a great chance to pick up best in class assets at the bottom of the market ahead of delivery on their deal with a potential strategic partner investor.
This comment from GMP:
23 September 2013
SUBJECT: Proposed US$100m equity deal at C$2.00/sh
IMPACT: Small negative – Friedland's strength in the past has been raising project-level funds at anti-dilutive valuations. As such, although the company stated today that talks are ongoing with strategic partners, a positive, it is a shame that ~10% dilution was required before then. On the flipside, this should strengthen the company's ability to negotiate. Of note, given the proposed C$2.00/sh price is well under recent C$2.56/sh price, we think the market will take the news negatively in the short term.
DETAILS: Ivanplats has announced that terms have been agreed on a C$100m equity raise (up to $108m) at C$2.00/sh. Robert Friedland will subscribe for $25m of the offering, effectively proportionate to his holding in the company. In addition to this, Ivanhoe indicated that talks are ongoing with strategic investors.
OUR VIEW: We have long held the view that Ivanhoe has the best undeveloped copper and PGM assets in the world, bar none, a view we maintain today. However, in our initiation we flagged that the single biggest risk to per share value was "pre-mine-funding financing for exploration / engineering studies", as announced today. Stepping back, we remain positive on the company given the asset quality and potential for anti-dilutive strategic funding going forward, but put simply, any potential deal will now be shared between an additional 50m shares causing ~10% dilution.
Looking in more detail at the funding, we do see one interesting point. Previously we expected a single fundraise ahead of Kamoa mine-build / strategic investment funding given the triple requirements of (i) taking Kamoa to Development Study stage, (ii) starting the Kamoa decline in 1Q14, and (iii) completing the Kipushi dewater, shaft refurbishment, development to access the Big Zinc, and drilling on the main ore body and Big Zinc. We don't think the current raise covers all this, so interpret the fact that it went ahead anyway as, hopefully, indicative of management confidence in concluding a strategic investment earlier than we had previously expect (from ~2H14 post Development Study). In addition, this should strengthen the company's ability to negotiate any such deal.
Looking at the requirement for the raise – we again had hoped that Kipushi would be dewatered by now as per the original schedule, which would have the double benefit of reducing burn, and opening the door to sale to avoid diluting the value of the world class Kamoa and Platreef projects, both of which declined in per share value by ~10% today. As such, although that opportunity has been missed, we do see potential for such a sale next year to fill any further funding gaps / reduce burn.
CATALYSTS:
Platreef
- 4Q13: 7.25m shaft sinking commences
- 4Q13/1Q14 (was 3Q13): Scoping study
- 2014: GMPe mining right application granted
Kamoa
- 2H13: Revised PEA
- 4Q13: Hydro power studies for Koni / Mwadingusha
- Early 2014: Kamoa decline commences
- 2H14: Kamoa Development Study completed
Disclaimer:
GMP Securities Europe LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. GMP Securities Europe LLP is a subsidiary of GMP Capital Inc.
Tenth Time’s the Charm
“Que no, chico, no es ‘El Dolado” – es ‘El DoRado’, con ‘r’…a verdad es que a Uds. no les sale…ji ji…”Dot Culver-LemonRamon TorresInversora MaelPlacerDomeVanessa VenturesGold ReserveCrystallexRusoroPDVSA- CITIC
The only question now is if PDVSA will file an arbitration claim over losing the concession, which would make them the fourth claimant suing over the same, never-yet-exploited mine.
It’s easy to make fun – too easy for me to pass up, at any rate – but early indications are that Maduro’s having some success out there. The additional $5 bn. loan from China Development Bank in particular is going to buy these guys some badly needed breathing room.
Bet they’re glad, too: failure to sign some fat deals out there would likely have seen him end up grovelling to the IMF, which is what passes for a Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement for him these days. (Can’t imagine that gave the Chinese any leverage to use in negotiating terms for these deals…can you?)
