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August 29, 2013

#Libya's #Oil Production has collapsed to 1/5 of per-war levels

As of today, Libya reported oil production has fallen to 320,000bpd (it was 665,000bpd yesterday), the lowest level since 2011.

Libya's Oil Production has collapsed due to security/strikes etc...

 

CONCLUSION: As of today, Libya reported oil production has fallen to 320,000bpd (it was 665,000bpd yesterday), the lowest level since 2011. At its pre-war peak Libya produced over 1.6M bpd of high quality light oil. Several issues have contributed to the dramatic fall in production;

1)      striking oil field workers demanding better work conditions and higher pay,

2)      an armed group has  apparently taken over several fields and pipeline facilities and halted production – no demands have been made of yet but, it is believed that this militia might be hijacking and selling oil without government approvals.

3)      longer term, the lack of political direction and security continues to discourage foreign investment in Libya  - this will result lower production from Libya for the foreseeable future.

 

A loss of 1Mbpd of production from Libya for a prolonged period of time may tighten supply and provide further support for oil prices at +$100/bbl level.

 

 

Follow these links for press articles and see below from Reuters:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323324904579040711999886326.html

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/energie-et-ressources/201308/28/01-4683991-nouvelle-chute-de-la-production-de-petrole-en-libye.php (IN FRENCH)

 

06:36 27Aug13 -LIBYAN OIL PRODUCTION HAS FALLEN TO 665,000 BARRELS PER DAY -  OIL MINISTER

06:39 27Aug13 -Libya says oil production drops to 665,000 bpd

    TRIPOLI, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Libyan oil production has fallen to 665,000 barrels per day (BPD) due to a month long disruption by armed security guards who shut down main export ports, the country's oil minister said on Tuesday.

   "In Libya we are precisely producing 665,000 bpd as a result of the strikes and the problems arising. We used to produce 1,550,000 bpd and when we produce now 665,000 bpd we are talking about a big difference," Abdelbari al-Arusi said in an interview aired by Libyan television channel Libya al-Hurra. 

(Reporting by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; editing by Keiron Henderson) ((suleiman.al-khalidi@thomsonreuters.com)(+962 79 5521407)(Reuters Messaging: suleiman.al-khalidi.reuters.com@thomsonreuters.net))

Keywords: LIBYA/OIL 

 

August 28, 2013

#Venezuela finds another way to destroy its credibility

"It is the state that sets the price of these products that will be sold, it's not some mafia ... no individual is going to come here and tell us the value of a product that belongs to all Venezuelans," Industry Minister Ricardo Menendez said last week during the launch of the new system.

The government has no idea what it's doing

With the new mechanism, Venezuela is now selling its metals well above the international price, according to mining industry workers, though it is not immediately evident how the companies are establishing prices.

Venezuela seeks 'fair price' for metals exports, traders wary

Traders warn that government plans to raise prices for its metals and minerals exports in a bid to obtain a fair price, could leave it without buyers.
Author: Diego Ore & Silvia Antonioli (Reuters)
Posted: Wednesday , 28 Aug 2013
CARACAS/LONDON (Reuters)  - 
Venezuela is hiking prices for its metals and minerals exports in an effort to obtain a "fair price" from buyers, but traders warned the move could leave the OPEC nation without buyers for its most important non-oil exports.
President Nicolas Maduro said the system would boost revenue for metals including iron, steel and aluminum, while reducing costly commissions paid to intermediaries and traders.
The "sovereign marketing" plan was rolled out in conjunction with promises by Maduro of a broad campaign to crack down on corruption after the arrest of several officials over alleged kickbacks at a state-run company.
"It is the state that sets the price of these products that will be sold, it's not some mafia ... no individual is going to come here and tell us the value of a product that belongs to all Venezuelans," Industry Minister Ricardo Menendez said last week during the launch of the new system.
Better known as a major oil producer, Venezuela also exports metals including long and flat steel products, iron ore, and primary aluminum that are produced by state-run firms.
Though it traditionally sold those metals using the benchmark prices of the London Metals Exchange (LME) - the world's top market for non-ferrous metals options and contracts - it also offered discounts off the reference prices.
With the new mechanism, Venezuelan is now selling its metals well above the international price, according to mining industry workers, though it is not immediately evident how the companies are establishing prices.
The industry ministry did not respond to requests for clarification.
Menendez pointed to a recent shipment of hot-briquetted iron (HBI) that sold for $310.00 per tonne, compared with a previous shipment that sold for $268.50 per tonne, noting that this would save the country $1.26 million.

'NO IDEA WHAT IT'S DOING'

Metals traders have decried the effort as another obstacle to doing business in the country, where commodities transactions are already made complicated by strict currency controls and overstretched port infrastructure.
"The government has no idea what it's doing ... They put up so many obstacles that clients are losing faith in Venezuela," said one ferrous metals trader who works in Venezuela.
"This is crazy, it's never going to work," said a metals merchant based in the United States. "People are leaving Venezuelan minerals in the ports."
Venezuela's metals industry output has slumped due to lack of investment, swollen payrolls and outdated technology. The contribution of mining to Venezuela's economic growth has fallen by 25 percent over the last decade, official figures say.
Metals output never recovered from a slump during an electricity crisis in 2010. At the same time, production costs have soared to the point they usually exceed the price fetched on the export markets.
Sidor, the largest steelmaker in the Andes region, was nationalized by the late socialist leader Hugo Chavez in 2008. According to official figures, it spends $700 to produce a tonne of steel billet that sells for $150 on the LME.
Venezuela largely stopped exporting steel because of demand from the local construction sector, driven by a massive housing program created by Chavez.
At Venalum, which has Latin America's largest aluminum plant, producing a tonne of aluminum costs $3,215, according to official figures, even though the LME lists its price at around $1,850.
Production at Venalum has fallen to levels similar to those of 20 years ago, and it is currently using only 35 percent of its installed capacity. It is exporting only about a third of its output, or some 44,640 tonnes.
This is considerably less than its supply commitments of 60,000 tonnes per year to commodities giant Glencore and 18,000 tonnes per year to Hong Kong-based Noble Resources, part of Noble Group.
The price disparities are partly the result of Venezuela's exchange control system, which fix the bolivar currency at a rate of 6.3 per dollar, even as greenbacks fetch more than five times that on an illegal black market. (Writing by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Daniel Wallis and David Gregorio)


Venezuela seeks 'fair price' for metals exports, traders wary


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August 27, 2013

Li Ka-Shing-Backed #Gold Investment vehicle #CEF comes out of the woodwork- Bloomberg

CEF Holdings Ltd., a venture between Li Ka-shing’s flagship company and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, is looking to invest in gold mining companies after a slump in prices creates buying opportunities. 

Li Ka-Shing-Backed CEF Seeking to Make Gold Investments

CEF Holdings Ltd., a venture between Li Ka-shing’s flagship company and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, is looking to invest in gold mining companies after a slump in prices creates buying opportunities.
“Long term, gold is a good place to be,” CEF Chief Executive Officer Warren Gilman, 53, said in an interview in Hong Kong. Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. (1), controlled by Li, Asia’s richest man, and CIBC each own 50 percent of CEF. The venture focuses on investing in resources companies globally.
Bullion is heading for its first annual decline since 2000 and has slumped 27 percent from a record $1,921.15 an ounce in September 2011. The plunge prompted investors John Paulson and George Soros to sell gold as mining companies cut jobs and the valuation of their mines.
“I was a little uncomfortable making investment in gold at $1,700 and $1,800 an ounce,” Gilman said yesterday. “The correction we’ve had this year from my perspective is great because we can hopefully fulfill that objective of making some gold investments.”
CEF recently made debt investments in Uranium Energy Corp. and Avanti Mining Inc., which is developing a molybdenum mine in Canada. Gilman declined to comment about CEF’s size or cash available for investments.
Li, 85, has an estimated net worth of $27 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. CEF Holdings was established in 1974 by Cheung Kong and CIBC, Gilman said.

Gold Price

Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.4 percent to $1,399.33 an ounce as at 12:46 p.m. Singapore time. The metal is down 16 percent this year as the dollar strengthened and amid concern that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting back its stimulus measures.
Prices may stay between $1,000 an ounce and $1,400 an ounce for “a couple of years and that’s predominantly because gold has to get used to, and it still seems to be adjusting, to the taper and rising real interest rates globally,” Gilman said. He previously co-founded CIBC’s global mining group and was later vice chairman of the bank’s CIBC World Markets.
Prices will average $1,300 an ounce in the fourth quarter, the median of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows. Bank of America Corp. is the most bullish, predicting a fourth-quarter average of $1,495 an ounce, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. anticipates rising averages in every quarter through the end of next year.

Gold Rallies

Gold has rallied 13 percent since the end of June as lower prices boosted demand, particularly in Asia, with prices averaging $1,313.58 an ounce. Bullion will rebound as spending cuts by producers and the closure of costly operations brings better balance to supply and demand, the producer-funded World Gold Council said this month.
“It’s tougher and tougher to find economic gold deposits in safe jurisdictions,” Gilman said. “You see mine supply struggling to keep up with demand long term. That’s a great recipe for higher prices in the longer term.”
Gold mining companies have announced at least $26 billion of writedowns in recent months and are seeking to sell assets after prices declined.
Gold Fields Ltd. last week agreed to pay $300 million for three Barrick Gold Corp. mines in Australia. Norton Gold Fields Ltd., the Australian producer controlled by China’s Zijin Mining Group Co., said this month it’s seeking further acquisition targets as falling prices cut the value of mines.
To contact the reporter on this story: Michelle Yun in Hong Kong at myun11@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jason Rogers at jrogers73@bloomberg.net


Li Ka-Shing-Backed CEF Seeking to Make Gold Investments - Bloomberg

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