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August 2, 2011

Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold?

Is the Debt Ceiling Raise Bullish for Gold? - Yahoo! Finance

--- The short answer is Yes, as this simply legalizes their continued spending...

It was quite the day for markets as a debt ceiling deal played with emotions.  The Dow , which initially jumped over 100 points at the open, finished the day down 10 points. The U.S. Dollar received a boost as markets are somehow feeling reassured about the government's ability to borrow more money.   Gold and silver also closed the day lower.

Although precious metals were down, there is a strong upward channel in gold.  The chart below shows the rise in gold prices over the past couple years.  Even though critics of gold will quickly call an end to gold's run on a decline, investors should keep the big picture in mind.  Gold continues to receive buying support as it nears the bottom of this channel. Even if gold declines to $1550, the longer-term technical trend looks strong.

As our Gold and Silver Premium Newsletter readers know, despite the temporary pullback in gold and silver, the debt deal is actually bullish for precious metals.  The debt deal allows the government to continue its massive spending and debt cycle, which will cause investors to seek out protection from the U.S. Dollar.  Furthermore, someone has to purchase government bonds, and the Federal Reserve is the most likely candidate.  The past two quantitate easing programs from the Fed paved the way for all time record gold prices, just imagine where QE 3 will put gold at in the near future.

Investors looking to hold metal miners in their portfolio may want to consider gold plays such as AngloGold , Newmont Mining , or Market Vectors Jr Gold Miners ETF .  Silver miners include First Majestic Silver , Endeavour Silver , and Global X Silver Miners ETF .

For more analysis on our support levels and ranges for gold and silver, consider a free 14-day trial to our acclaimed Gold & Silver Investment Newsletter.

Disclosure: Long AGQ.



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Bank of Korea buys 25 tonnes of gold

Bank of Korea buys 25 tonnes of gold

In what is its first gold purchase in more than a decade the Bank of Korea says it spent more than $1bn over the past two months in order to diversify its holdings away from reserve currencies like the dollar and the euro

Author: Yoo Choonsik and Kim Yeonhee (Reuters)
Posted:  Tuesday , 02 Aug 2011

SEOUL (Reuters) - 

South Korea spent more than a billion dollars in its first gold purchase in more than a decade, as uncertainty about global growth and sovereign debt push central banks around the world to diversify foreign reserves.

A brittle global economic recovery and precarious debt conditions in the United States and Europe have boosted the safe-haven appeal of gold, lifting bullion to a record high on Friday.

The Bank of Korea said in a statement on Tuesday it bought 25 tonnes of gold over the past two months, raising its gold holding to 39.4 tonnes, news that helped lift spot gold by around $6 from late Monday.

Reserve currencies, like the dollar and euro, "have been losing their clout since the recent global financial crisis partly due to abnormal monetary policy adopted in many countries and fiscal deficit problems," said an official at the central bank who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

Data on 27 major economies from the Bank for International Settlements shows the dollar's inflation-adjusted real effective value has dropped by 10 percent in the past two years and the euro has lost 6 percent, reflecting the sharp increase in the amount of each currency in circulation.

South Korea's gold holdings remain far smaller than that of other Asian central banks, with China, which ranks sixth globally, the biggest with 1,054.1 tonnes by the end of May, according to World Gold Council data.

Japan, No. 9 globally, has 765.2 tonnes of gold, or 3.3 percent of its total reserves, and 11th-ranked India has 557.7 tonnes, or 8.7 percent.

"South Korea's central bank seems a little late to the party, but gold investors should continue to expect price support as central bankers around the world are underinvested in the yellow stuff," said Sean McGillivray, head of asset allocation at Great Pacific Wealth Management.

"Investors and central bankers are looking to protect purchasing power, diversifying into the currency of last resort, gold."

With prices hovering near historic highs, the central bank of Asia's fourth-largest economy said gold looked less lucrative as an investment, but it was the right time to buy the precious metal because its foreign reserves had risen above $300 billion.

The news helped boost gold prices, with spot up 0.4 percent at $1,623.94 an ounce by 0528 GMT. Gold hit a record high of $1,632.30 on Friday.

"Any news about central banks buying gold reassures consumers and other major players who are already looking at gold as an investment," said Jeffrey Pritchard, analyst at California-based commodities futures and options brokerage Altavest Worldwide Trading.

CONDITIONS RIPE FOR GOLD PURCHASE

The Bank of Korea said its latest gold purchase was valued at $1.24 billion. It did not say whether it had bought gold bullion or funds, or whether it plans to buy more gold.

The purchase comes weeks before the central bank is due to face an annual parliamentary audit, expected in September, and after several South Korean lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition parties have repeatedly called for it to boost holdings of gold to diversify reserves.

At 25 tonnes of gold, equivalent to 803,769 ounces, the average price paid comes to around $1,543 an ounce, based on Reuters calculations.

A BoK official said it was the bank's first gold purchase since at least the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis when patriotic Koreans collected the precious metal as part of a campaign to boost the country's foreign reserves, when it was on the verge of a sovereign default.

"The country had too small an amount of foreign reserves to diversify into gold before 2004 and was not able to buy gold between 2005 and 2007 due to concerns about the central bank's annual losses," the Bank of Korea said.

"Now that our total reserves topped $300 billion and foreign exchange markets stabilised, we judged that conditions were ripe for us to increase gold holding."

The increased gold holding would put South Korea in 45th position in the World Gold Council's list of central banks holding gold, up from 56th previously, the Bank of Korea said.

The United States has the biggest gold holding in its reserves, at 8,133.5 tonnes, or 74.7 percent of total reserves, according to the WGC's July report. Germany is a distant second with 3,401 tonnes, or 71.7 percent of its total reserves.

The Bank of Korea declined to disclose the purchase price but said it had entrusted all of its gold holding to the Bank of England for possible use in gold lending and other related transactions.

Including the gold, South Korea's foreign reserves rose by $6.55 billion in July to $311.03 billion, equivalent to about 30 percent of the country's annual gross domestic product of just more than $1 trillion in 2010.

South Korea's foreign reserves ranked seventh in the world as of the end of June, the central bank said.

© Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved

July 27, 2011

Canada makes a deal a day as mining M&A head towards $200 billion | MINING.com

Canada makes a deal a day as mining M&A head towards $200 billion

Frik Els | July 25, 2011
canada_south_america_box_barcode_trade_finance

The value of mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector more than doubled to $96.3 billion in the first six months of the year and could top $200 billion for the whole of 2011 says a new research report.

Canadian companies – both as acquirers and as the targets of buyers – dominated corporate finance activity in the first half shaking on more than a deal a day and at 325 deals accounting for almost two-thirds of all the metals and minerals transactions carried out around the world.

According the Ernst & Young report released on Monday top acquiring country by volume was Canada (196 deals), followed by Australia (83) deals and the top target destination by volume was Canada (129 deals), followed by Australia (72 deals).

Canada’s total mineral production for last year was valued at $41.3 billion, which is $11 billion more than 2009’s production according to government statistics from Natural Resources Canada (NRCan).

In 2010, Canada ranked first globally for the production of potash; second for uranium production; third for aluminium and titanium concentrate production; fourth for elemental sulphur and nickel production; and fifth for platinum-group metals, chrysotile, molyb- denum, salt and cadmium production.

Ernst & Young says thirst for natural resources from rapidly developing economies continues to drive M&A in the mining sector, but the pace of growth in deal-making is being tempered by uncertainty around global macroeconomic issues and resource nationalism concerns around the world.

Total deal value for January—June 2011 doubled compared to January—June 2010, up from US$47.9b to US$96.3b.

There were slightly fewer deals in the same period, with 573 for the H1 2010 compared to 511 to 30 June this year, reinforcing the view that while larger deals are being executed there is still a level of uncertainty around doing M&A given the current macro-economic backdrop.

The number of mining & metals sector IPOs globally was up 30% from 56 in H1 2010 to 73 in H1 2011. Total proceeds from IPOs were up 107% from US$6.3b to US$13.0b, although this is dominated by the US$10 billion Glencore listing.

Ernst & Young’s Global Mining & Metals Transaction Advisory Leader, Lee Downham, says a strong transaction pipeline, the availability of capital and historically low debt levels across the sector suggests M&A values and volume will increase for the remainder of 2011 and into 2012.

Downham says while deal activity is stronger than last year, given the strong environment for M&A not as many deals had been done in H1 2011 as could have been expected. However the pace of deal making has increased in recent months.

“Average mining company debt is at an all time low while cash flow and profitability is at an all time high. With capital increasingly available to the sector, mining and metals companies are in a very good position to do deals,” says Downham.

“However, ongoing Eurozone credit issues, stagnating growth in America, uncertainty around the pace of China’s growth, combined with uncertainty around the spread of resource nationalism is making management wary and it is holding some deals back.”

Downham says while there are signs IPO activity in the sector is also starting to be impacted by the uncertainty and stock market volatility, with some delays in listings due to valuation challenges, the IPO pipeline remains very strong.

“We expect to see a significant number of mining and metals IPOs during the second half of 2011 and beyond.”

Downham says despite the ongoing uncertainties the pace of deal making in the sector is likely to pick up through the rest of 2011.

“The thirst for natural resources in the emerging markets means deals will be done.”

M&A in the mining and metals sector, January—June 2011 also shows more than US$17b in share buybacks on the back of strong cash flows and increased demand from shareholders for returns.

Canada makes a deal a day as mining M&A head towards $200 billion | MINING.com

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