United States GDP From #Mining

source: tradingeconomics.com 

GDP from Mining in the United States increased

#Platinum Quarterly Q12023 WPIC

Revised platinum deficit forecast for 2023, up 77% to 983 koz, as demand grows 28% and supply decreases 1% year-on-year
 

Stronger-than-expected positive investment demand in quarter one sees full-year forecast raised to 433 koz
 

Industrial demand on track to be the strongest on record, increasing 17% driven by glass capacity expansions in China
 

Strong platinum automotive demand growth continues in 2023, up 12% on higher loadings and increased substitution

Jump in investment demand to over 400 koz

Q1'23 saw a surge in investor interest, driven by heightened global uncertainty, platinum's strong demand growth and concerns about risks to mine supply. Bar and coin investment jumped by 71% year-on-year in Q1'23 to 102 koz, propelled by a marked recovery in Japan. This trend is set to continue for the full year, with an increase of 79% forecast. Meanwhile, net platinum ETF holdings grew by 43 koz in Q1'23, reversing the previous six quarters' net disinvestment. Again, this trend is expected to continue in 2023. The result will mean net investment demand of 433 koz in 2023 – a swing of 1,073 koz on 2022.

Industrial demand in 2023 will be the strongest on record

Industrial platinum demand grew 8% in Q1'23, driven by growth in chemical demand of 108% due to paraxylene capacity additions in China. On a full-year basis, LCD glass capacity additions in China are expected to offset closures in Japan and result in glass demand for platinum growing by 76% year-on-year to 730 koz. Overall, this year is forecast to be a record year for industrial demand, growing by 17% year-on-year to 2,628 koz.

Platinum automotive demand up strongly despite weak macro outlook

Automotive demand rose 9% to 806 koz in Q1'23, partly aided by higher vehicle production, but mainly on increased platinum use per vehicle. On a full year basis, global automotive demand is expected to rise by 12% in 2023 to 3,255 koz driven by a number of factors. Firstly, heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) production is forecast to grow by 6% in 2023, with output in China jumping by as much as 26%. Secondly, tighter emissions legislation, particularly in China, will result in higher loadings, especially for HDVs and non-road vehicles. Lastly, growing platinum for palladium substitution in gasoline after-treatment systems will further boost platinum consumption. Significantly, this has meant a further upward revision to the substitution estimate for 2023 to 615 koz.

Total supply continues to struggle in 2023

Refined mine production declined 8% in Q1'23 year-on-year and fell 11% against Q4'22, as gains from Russia failed to offset reduced output from South Africa. While mined platinum supply is forecast to fall by a modest 1% to 5,511 koz in 2023, as reductions in South Africa are partially offset by gains in Zimbabwe and North America, significant uncertainties still exist for South African platinum supply due to the impact of the country's ongoing electricity shortages.

Global recycling of platinum remained sluggish in the first quarter of 2023, falling 12% year-on-year to 413 koz, due to reduced volumes of end-of-life vehicles. Meanwhile, the regulatory environment in North America aimed at curbing autocatalyst theft also hindered recycling volumes. With both issues likely to prevail throughout 2023, full-year platinum recycling supply is forecast to fall by 1% to 1,682 koz.

 

https://platinuminvestment.com/files/943761/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q1_2023.pdf

Top 20 #Copper Mines

To make the list, the cut-off for 2022 was 245kt, versus 232kt in 2021 and 221kt in 2020. The order of the mines also changed, with mention going to Codelco’s Chuquicamata which saw production fall from 319kt in 2021 to 268kt in 2022, but it was not the only one with declining output.

#Gold Demand Trends Q1 2023 #CentralBanks, OTC Investors & China buy, while #ETF’s & #India demand was lower @GoldCouncil

• Q1 gold demand (excluding OTC) was 13% lower y/y at 1,081 tonnes (t). Inclusive of OTC, total gold demand strengthened 1% y/y to 1,174t as a recovery in OTC investment – consistent with investor positioning  
• Continued momentum in central bank buying and resurgent Chinese consumer demand contrasted with a negative contribution from ETFs and weakness in India. 

Gold Demand Trends Q1 2023

World Gold Council 

5 May, 2023

Mixed picture for gold demand in Q1

Continued momentum in central bank buying and resurgent Chinese consumer demand contrasted with a negative contribution from ETFs and weakness in India. Q1 gold demand (excluding OTC) was 13% lower y/y at 1,081 tonnes (t). Inclusive of OTC, total gold demand strengthened 1% y/y to 1,174t as a recovery in OTC investment – consistent with investor positioning in the futures market – offset weakness in some areas.¹  

Demand from central banks experienced significant growth during the quarter. Official sector institutions remained keen and committed buyers of gold, adding 228t to global reserves.

Bar and coin investment gained 5% y/y to 302t, concealing some large regional variations. In contrast, net negative demand for ETFs, although modest at -29t, generated a hefty y/y decline compared with the sizable inflows seen in Q1'22. 

Global jewellery consumption was virtually flat at 478t. Jewellery fabrication exceeded consumption as stock building added just over 30t to global inventories.

Gold use in the technology sector continued to suffer from the challenging economic climate. Demand slumped to 70t – the second lowest quarter in our data series back to 2000. 

Modest growth in both mine production (+2%) and recycling (+5%) led to a marginal increase in Q1 total gold supply to 1,174t. The uptick in recycling was largely a function of higher gold prices.

 

Mixed picture for gold demand in Q1 2023

Jewellery fabricationTechnologyTotal bar and coin demandETFs and similar productsCentral banks and other inst.Gold demand (5-year quarterly average)Q1'18Q1'19Q1'20Q1'21Q1'22Q1'23-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600

Highlights

The LBMA Gold Price (PM) averaged US$1,890/oz during the quarter, marginally higher y/y. The price was over 10% higher than the previous quarter's average, almost matching the Q3'20 record high. 
 
China saw a strong relief rally in the first post-COVID quarter of unfettered consumer spending. The recovering domestic economy and healthy income growth reignited domestic consumption, while the eye-catching gold price performance spurred investment interest. 

Indian demand fell sharply as local gold prices applied the brakes. Record high – and volatile – domestic gold prices discouraged both investment and jewellery consumption during the quarter.
 
Investment dominates the outlook for 2023.  We continue to see healthy upside for investment this year, while the picture for fabrication (jewellery and technology) is more muted. Further robust central bank buying is expected, albeit below 2022's record. Modest growth is likely in both mine production and recycling.

Gold supply and demand

	Q1'22	Q2'22	Q3'22	Q4'22	Q1'23		Y/y % chg
Supply
Mine production	843.1	894.4	956.3	955.7	856		2%
Net producer hedging	25.9	2.3	-25.9	-13	8.1		-69%
Total mine supply	869	896.6	930.4	942.7	864		-1%
Recycled gold	296.2	285.3	268.6	290.5	310.4		5%
Total Supply	1,165.10	1,182.00	1,198.90	1,233.20	1,174.40		1%
Demand
Jewellery fabrication	516.4	492.3	582.3	601.3	508.6		-2%
Jewellery consumption	475.3	458.4	526.1	629.7	477.9		1%
Jewellery inventory	41.1	33.9	56.2	-28.4	30.7		-25%
Technology	81	78.5	77	72.3	70		-13%
Electronics	66.2	64.6	63.2	58	56		-15%
Other Industrial	12	11.3	11.3	11.9	11.6		-3%
Dentistry	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4		-12%
Investment	558.4	213.8	103.9	250.6	273.7		-51%
Total bar & coin demand	287.7	261.2	348	340.3	302.4		5%
Physical Bar demand	183.6	172.8	225.6	222.4	181.9		-1%
Official Coin	84.6	70.8	89.4	89	96.5		14%
Medals/Imitation Coin	19.5	17.6	33	28.9	24.1		23%
ETFs & similar products	270.7	-47.4	-244.1	-89.6	-28.7	–	–
Central banks & other inst.	82.7	158.6	458.6	378.6	228.4		176%
Gold demand	1,238.50	943.2	1,221.80	1,302.80	1,080.80		-13%
OTC and other	-73.3	238.8	-22.8	-69.7	93.6		–
Total Demand	1,165.10	1,182.00	1,198.90	1,233.20	1,174.40		1%
LBMA Gold Price, US$/oz	1,877.20	1,870.60	1,728.90	1,725.90	1,890.20		1%

Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, Metals Focus, World Gold Council

See the full report here: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2023

https://bit.ly/MasterMetals