Argentina’s ‘Chavez’ risks shale-fuelled economic miracle

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Investors losing faith in #commodity hedge #funds: Reuters

Investors losing faith in #commodity hedge #funds: Reuters

MINUTES ON THE CLOCK...!!??? Investors losing faith in commodity hedge funds Investors in some of the best-known commodity hedge funds are getting increasingly frustrated by their performance, with some heading for the exit as managers rack up a second year of losses. Some major funds focused on energy, metals and agricultural products have fallen this year after traders - still cautious about big bets following last year's losses - sought to protect themselves against rising volatility just as it fell. Clive Capital, the $3.4 billion London-based fund run by Chris Levett, and Armajaro, one of the largest players in the coffee and cocoa markets, are among those in the red. Meanwhile, Fortress Investment Group's commodities fund, run by William Callanan, this week became the year's third big-name commodity fund to close after it racked up double-digit losses and lost half its assets. "The multi-billion funds have really been nothing but disappointing over the last couple of years," said one investor, asking not to be named. "For people that only came in when the noise about commodities started a couple of years ago, they (the funds) have basically done nothing." Commodity managers who forged reputations for eye-catching returns as they rode the long commodity bull run that started some 10 years ago are now struggling with shorter, more uncertain trends. Aside from Fortress, two of the sector's biggest names also decided to liquidate their funds earlier this year, underlining how tough commodity markets have become for even veteran traders. Legendary natural gas trader John Arnold is closing down his flagship Centaurus fund after two years of struggling to maintain outsized returns, while oil fund BlueGold - famed for its 200 percent gain in 2008 - is shutting after racking up 35 percent losses last year. STRUGGLING WITH VOLATILITY For a sector renowned for managers' ability to navigate volatility, many struggled to get to grips with falls this year. Some funds came into the year predicting rising volatility in oil prices on the back of escalating tensions around Iran and its nuclear ambitions. Brent crude oil gained about 15 percent early in 2012 but has given up most of its rise. "The fall in commodity volatility has cost managers over the year. A lot of people bought call options on oil but implied volatility has fallen substantially over the past few months," Jaspal Phull, a portfolio manager at Stenham Asset Management and responsible for investing in commodity funds, said. "There is definitely a sense that ... managers need to produce returns this year after what was a disappointing 2011." Metal prices have also hurt funds. Key industrial metal copper, for example, has remained range-bound after gaining around 15 percent early in the year. "I think people have been trading a lot of options, not only in metals, expecting volatility to increase, but it just hasn't, it's been very flat ... People have lost a lot of money trying to trade volatility, it's not pretty," said a market source, asking not to be named. Big-name losers include Callanan at Fortress. His fund, which is now returning money to investors, lost 12.6 percent this year to the end of April after falling 8 percent last year. The $860 million Krom River Commodity Fund has given up 3.6 percent after a 4 percent drop in 2011, while Clive Capital, a big player in oil markets, is down 4.4 percent, compounding last year's 9.9 percent slide, figures seen by Reuters show. Meanwhile, commodities giant Armajaro, co-founded by cocoa trader Anthony Ward, saw its flagship fund fall 1.6 percent in the first quarter and its computer-driven fund shed 10 percent, according to figures seen by Reuters. The average commodity fund has fared only slightly better. Funds focused on energy or basic materials are up 2.15 percent to early May, but this is less than half the 4.42 percent rise of the average fund, according to Hedge Fund Research. Not all funds are in their second year of losses, however. Mike Coleman's Merchant Commodity Fund has rebounded after a slide in 2011. The portfolio has gained 11 percent up to the end of April after falling 30.1 percent last year. HEADING FOR THE EXIT Poor performance is encouraging some investors to sell. Many who poured into commodity funds after the financial crisis, wanting to diversify away from stock and bond markets ravaged by volatility, will have missed out on the boom years - epitomised by BlueGold's 200 percent gain in 2008. Assets in Callanan's fund slid 46 percent to $473 million during the first quarter, a company filing showed. The fund, which ceases trading around May 23, ran $1.2 billion last June. One investor in Clive and Armajaro, asking not to be named, said it was considering cutting its holdings as it now preferred to invest in smaller, nimbler managers. Clive and Armajaro declined to comment. "Everyone's had quite a lot of investors pulling money out and that causes a lot of rebalancing issues. They're pulling out for a number of reasons, not just outright performance, maybe a different strategy is being employed," the market source said. The worry now is that commodity markets are set to suffer renewed volatility, driven by geopolitical concerns in energy markets and weaker growth in China, the world's biggest consumer of raw materials, making it even tougher for managers to trade. Gabriel Garcin, portfolio manager at Paris-based Europanel Research & Alternative Asset Management, has shied away from investing in pure commodity hedge funds partly due to the relatively small markets in which they invest. "The Chinese slowdown is also adding to the asymmetry of returns in commodities. You have these two parameters that could create a lot of volatility and a very tough environment for traders," he said.     --- Tommy Wilkes and Eric Onstad, Reuters

#Gold plunges to 4-month lows on rising #dollar

Gold plunges to 4-month lows on rising dollar
With gold buyers remaining largely absent, the gold price has fallen nearly 4% so far this week, its worst weekly performance this year, prompting investors to seek refuge in the dollar.
Author: By Jan Harvey
Posted:  Friday , 11 May 2012


LONDON (REUTERS)  - 
Gold prices fell more than 1 percent to a four-month low on Friday as worries over the financial health of Greece and Spain and huge trading losses for JPMorgan hurt stock markets and the euro, prompting investors to seek refuge in the dollar.
Investors liquidated gold holdings to cover losses on other markets, analysts said, as a rise in risk aversion sparked selling across assets seen as higher risk, while lifting the U.S. currency and safe-haven German Bunds.
Spot gold slid to $1,573.29 an ounce, its weakest since Jan. 3, after support gave way at $1,579, and was down 1 percent at $1,578.56 an ounce at 0917 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down $16.60 an ounce at $1,578.90.
Spot prices have fallen nearly 4 percent so far this week, their worst weekly performance this year.
"May is turning into a trouble month for investors in most asset classes once again. Gold, offering high liquidity, is being hurt by the need to realise cash and move to the sidelines," Saxo Bank vice president Ole Hansen said.
"We saw another sweep lower this morning assisted by another upside attempt on the dollar," he said. Nonetheless, he added, the downward move could soon run out of steam.
"We are moving into an area of support with many talking about 1,550 as the line in the sand. The dollar should by now have been a lot stronger considering the strong buy signal given this week in the EUR/USD. This has so far not materialized."
European shares fell on Friday as uncertainty over Greece's political outlook, a huge loss from JPMorgan and mounting concerns over Spain's banking sector led to a sharp deterioration in market confidence.
German Bund futures pushed higher, while peripheral euro zone government bonds were set to remain under pressure as Greece made a last-gasp attempt to cobble together a government. The euro hit a 3-1/2 month low against the dollar
Although last year gold tended to benefit from worries over the health of the euro zone, it has reverted to trading more in line with assets seen as higher risk as the dollar has taken over as the haven of choice.
"Safe-haven gold buyers remain largely absent while bullion continues to trade in the same direction as riskier assets," VTB Capital said in a note. "Risk appetite for gold is simply not there, with players preferring the greenback at the moment."
INDIAN GOLD DEMAND SOFT
Buying of physical gold has been lacklustre in recent weeks in major consumer India, where appetite has been dampened by rupee weakness, further eroding confidence in the metal.
Some buying was seen in the United States, where sales of American Eagle gold coins hit 31,500 ounces so far this month, already 50 percent more than was sold in the whole of April.
On the demand side of the market, the world's biggest gold miner, China, produced 29.8 tonnes of gold in March, bringing total gold output in the first quarter to 80.8 tonnes, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on Friday.
Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.4 percent at $28.58 an ounce, tracking losses in gold.
The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of silver ounces needed to buy an ounce of gold, broke through 55 on Friday for the first time since mid-January as the white metal underperformed.
The world's biggest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust, has seen outflows of just over 87 tonnes of metal so far this month.
Spot platinum was down 1.3 percent at $1,461.44 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 1.4 percent at $601.70 an ounce, having earlier touched its lowest since mid-December at $596.33.
Platinum Week, at which traders, miners, refiners, recyclers and buyers will meet, takes place in London next week. Recent price declines in both metals is likely to be discussed.
"After some sizeable price declines, we can't help thinking that both platinum and palladium look like good value here," UBS said in a note on Friday. "From the year's high of $1,737, platinum has already given back $245, while palladium has shed 15 percent from its high of $726."
"While some residual liquidation is possible if markets suffer another extreme risk-averse event, we tend to think that the bulk of the price declines are in the past and that PGMs have entered a value zone."
(Reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by Alison Birrane)
 
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Gold plunges to 4-month lows on rising dollar - EUROPE AND MIDDLE EAST - Mineweb.com | The world's premier mining and mining investment website Mineweb

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