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April 3, 2017

#Gold & #Silver #COT Commitment of Traders


Net commitments of futures traders (attachment 1) shows that large speculators (hedge funds and money managers) have increased their long gold positions. Net commercial gold dealers have increased their short positions.

 

The KITCO Gold Survey reveals that Wall Street and Retail Investors (Main Street) are bullish for this week (attachment 2).

 

The Gold Barometer shows the same pictureas last week. Gold stocks are halfway between neutral and overbought and the physical gold price is neutral (attachment 3).

 

The gold hourly chart indicates that gold had a good run last Monday and then glided down till Friday, March 31st and just gained a few dollar at the end of the trading session. As per Friday, New York time 4 p.m., gold closed at US$ 1,247 per ounce, unchanged on the week (attachment 4).

 

HUI, the ARCA Gold Bugs Index, went nowhere last week. It is still trading below the 50-day moving average and was unable to really penetrate on the upside the 200-day moving average since November 2016 (attachment 5). HUI is an index of shares of gold companies.

 

Commitment of futures traders in silver reveals that large speculators have increased their long positions and net commercial silver dealers their short positions. Historically these positions are extremely large.

 

In the first quarter of 2017 silver (+13.4%) has outperformed gold (+8.6%).

 

Over the last 6 months the gold price didn't perform well against currencies of emerging markets (see attachment 7-9). It lost 7.3% versus the Brazilian Reals, 7.5% versus the Mexican Pesos and 1.6% versus the Chinese Yuan.


 

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