The Uranium industry is undergoing a bullish shift in trend characterised by a breakout from multi-year downtrends on a thrust in momentum and volume. Yesterday, the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) had its highest volume day in history, eclipsing even the volume seen on the day of the Fukushima disaster. The high volume selloff in 2011 marked a major negative turning point for the sector and we believe the bullish thrust in momentum represents the same shift in trend to the upside.
Chart 1 – The second week of January saw the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) breakout from a six year downtrend and 1.5 year basing pattern on the highest volume week since the ETF's inception. The resulting pullback occurred on significantly lower volume followed by a reversal higher yesterday on the highest volume day in history. Combined with the momentum thrust to all time highs we view the current breakout as a major shift in trend. As such we recommend accumulating an overweight position in Uranium stocks.
Chart 2 – Cameco Corp. has broken above a major level of resistance along the bottom of the 2011 to 2016 trading range and 2014 downtrend. The breakout occurred on heavy volume and a breakout in RSI and MACD to multi-year highs. We view the current pullback as an opportunity to accumulate a position as we continue to see conservative upside back to $20.00.
Chart 3 – Denison Mines Corp. is breaking out from a three year downtrend and six quarter basing pattern on volume. Price action likely needs to consolidate the breakout in the near-term but we view any pullbacks as an opportunity to accumulate shares in the early stages of a bullish shift in trend.
Chart 4 – The 2016 lows in Fission Uranium were not confirmed by momentum indicators with both RSI and MACD making significantly higher lows. Now price action is breaking above the 2014 downtrend and 1.5 year double bottom on volume and momentum confirming the bullish divergence in momentum. We recommend accumulating any near-term weakness with upside measuring back toward the $1.30 to $1.40 level.
Chart 5 – NexGen Energy remains the leader among the Uranium stocks. After a 2/3rd retracement of the 2016 advance, NXE reversed high from oversold levels and has since broken out to all time highs. While momentum is extended, shares in an uptrend can remain overbought for long periods of time and we continue to recommend letting your winners ride.
Global Uranium ETF: Early Stages of a Major Shift in Trend
Cameco Corp.: Reclaiming Multi-Year Resistance Level on Volume
Denison Mines Corp.: Breakout on Thrust in Volume and Momentum
Fission Uranium Corp.: Breakout Confirms Bullish Divergence
NexGen Energy Ltd.: Breaking Out to All Time Highs