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May 3, 2016

Cantor: #Gold target raised to $1,425/oz; initial resistance @ $1,338/oz -$1,383/oz.

Cantor Fitzgerald ups it's price target to US$1,425/oz with resistance levels set at US$1,338/oz to US$1,383/oz.

Update: Positive Gold set up

Bullish continuation pattern complete. $1,338/$1,383 near term resistance levels. Longer term trend reversal remains in play.

·         Gold completed a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern last week <chart#1>.

o   This pattern projects a minimum price objective to $1,425.

·         Spot Gold traded with a negative price series for 2.5 years until the move above $1178/$1200 and the pivotal 50WMA in the first half of February this year <chart#2>.

·         Above $1,383 is a historic low volume trade zone which lacks significant resistance levels.

·         Cross asset focus: €/$ in breakout mode above 1.1530. Negative correlation to the US$ remains.

 

Chart#1. Spot Gold $/Oz Daily. Including 50DMA.

·         Key focus: Bullish symmetrical triangle pattern.

 

 

Chart#2. Spot Gold $/Oz Weekly. Including 50WMA, Volume at Price indicators.

·         Key focus: Resistance levels at $1,338 and $1,383.

 

 Previous emails RE Positive Gold Outlook 11th February and 11th April below:

From: O'Leary, Guy
Sent: 11 April 2016 11:35
To:
Subject: Update: Positive Gold set up

 

Remain positive above $1178/$1200 breakout zone targeting resistance levels $1295/$1338/$1383. Positive price action and momentum now in play.  Key range in the near term $1208 to $1272.

·         Spot Gold traded with a negative price series for 2.5 years until the move above $1178/$1200 and the pivotal 50WMA in the first half of February this year <chart#1>.

·         Price posted a near term 'higher low' in March <chart#2>.

·         Momentum indicators have turned to positive mode while Gold Price Volatility continues to fall with the %age daily Average True Range is now 1.5% vs 2% twelve month high / 1% twelve month low <chart#3&4>.

·         Negative correlation to the US$ remains. Key range support in DXY = 93.13. Key range resistance in €/$ = 1.1534.

·         Key support Gold: $1208 near term range support, $1200/$1178 February breakout zone.

·         Key resistance Gold: $1272 near term range resistance, $1295, $1338 and $1383.

 

Chart#1. Spot Gold $/oz. Weekly chart. April 2012 to present day. Inc 50WMA.

 

Chart#2. Spot Gold $/oz. Daily chart. July 2015 to present. Inc 50DMA.

 

Chart#3. Daily momentum dynamic Spot Gold. Weekly and Monthly readings remain positive.

 

Chart#4. Volatility. Average True Range %age. Spot Gold.

 

 

 

From: O'Leary, Guy
Sent: 11 February 2016 09:46
To:
Subject: Gold breaks above $1200. Bullish.

 

Spot Gold broke above its $1200 major resistance level today, if price remains above $1200 (currently $1216) for the weekly close tomorrow look for a direct move toward $1295 (Q1/2015 highs).

·         Gold has traded with a series of lower highs and lower lows since a bearish triangle completed in September 2014.

·         $1200 marked the previous high (October 2015) in the negative sequence.

·         Positive Gold move during extreme equity selloffs as per DM Government Bonds (US10 year yield now 1.6% from 2.28% on 4th Jan).

·         Primary resistance is $1295 with secondary resistance at $1339 and R3 at $1383.

 

Spot Gold $/oz. Weekly chart. May 2012 to present day.

 

 

Gold vs S&P500. Daily Chart. November 2015 to present day.

·         Panel 1: Gold vs S&P500 price.

·         Panel 2: Gold vs S&P500 ratio spread.

·         Panel 3: Gold S&P500 40 day correlation.

 

 

____________________
Guy O'Leary  MA, MBS, MSTA, APA

Global Macro Strategy Team

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