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August 30, 2013

#Allana #Potash and Israel Chem. Ltd. #ICL may have formalized an agreement for a J/V (unconfirmed source)

Management has indicated that they are presently still only in negotiations with several companies right now and that no definitive agreement has been signed as yet.

Event: According to an unconfirmed source Allana Potash and Israel Chem. Ltd. (ICL) may have formalized an agreement for a J/V after meeting mid August.

 

Details:

Ø  We have found one article dated today that is saying the two have formed a J/V to develop the Danakhil deposit.

Ø  This follows the news that the two companies were in talks mid August (See our previous email - attached)

·         ICL is the sixth largest potash producer, with ~6Mt in annual capacity (operations in Israel, UK and Spain).

·         ICL has been vocal recently about looking to expand capacity through new development and/or acquisition abroad.

·         Notably, 4Mt of ICL's potash production comes from the Dead Sea and this concession is set to return to the state in 2030.

·         Allana recently indicated that discussions with potential offtake and equity investment partners (large fertilizer companies) have advanced and the company noted that interest has actually increased recently with the latest developments in the sector.

Conclusion:

If True this would be positive, having the support of ICL which would be an asset in terms of helping secure money for capex and for marketing and sales of potash throughout the Mideast, Africa  and Asia (particularly India).

Allana's low cost project and strategic location would be a good compliment/eventual replacement for ICL's low-cost Dead Sea capacity (one of the reasons Potash Corp. was an interested acquirer).

 

http://www.indmin.com/Article/3248915/Channel/19523/Israel-Chemicals-to-partner-Allana-Potash-in-Ethiopia-project.html

 

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Israel Chemicals considering potash mine in Ethiopia

Site is cheaper on balance than other places worldwide, closer to company's main markets.

By Yoram Gabison | Aug. 12, 2013 | 2:51 PM

 

Israel Chemicals has been in talks recently with a Canadian listed company Allana Potash about opening a potash mine in Ethiopia.

Allana Potash CEO Farhad Abasov met with ICL senior management in Tel Aviv three weeks ago to seek ICL's participation in the construction of a mine at the Dallol site in Ethiopia's Danakhil Valley, located in the country's northeast.

Allana has already raised $85 million from investors to build the mine, which is expected to yield a million tons of potash annually. The mine site has 182 million tons of proven potash reserves and potential reserves as high as 438 million tons. The mining project will be based on technology in which ICL has particular expertise from its Dead Sea Works, pumping and evaporating brine to extract potash.

ICL commented it regularly examines opportunities for international projects and was seeking to expand its current potash production capacity. However, it cautioned that recent circumstances in the potash market were making new mining projects challenging.

Allana estimates that investment in the mine will reach $642 million, a figure which includes both the mining operation and building the transportation infrastructure to carry the potash from Dankil to the Indian Ocean port of Tadjoura, located in next-door Djibouti. The production costs including haulage to port, are expected to reach $98 per ton, with annual maintenance costs of $26 per ton. (These costs compare with averaging mining costs of $100-$150 million per ton.)

Acquiring either full or partial ownership of the mine in Ethiopia would present several advantages to ICL, which is looking to expand its production capacity in core areas such as potash. The company will be required to return its Dead Sea potash concession to the state in 2030, which will leave the company scrambling to find a replacement for 4 million tons of production capacity for a mineral that provided 63% of its operating profit in 2012.

ICL already holds a 640 square kilometer potash mining concession in Spain's Catalan region. Currently, the company exploits only 64 square kilometers of that concession, but estimates that the site has reserves that would support production of up to 10 million tons of potash per year. However, Ethiopia is closer to two key markets for ICL, China and India. Moreover, the demand for potash in the local African market, which is currently 1 million tons per year, is expected to reach between 5 million and 7 million tons per year by 2020.

The Dallol project has already completed the prospecting stage and pilot production. It also completed a series of operational tests conducted in February 2013 to determine the cost of establishing and operating the mine and to receive the approval of Ethiopia's environmental ministry. Allana has submitted a formal request to the Ethiopian authorities for a mining permit.

The Ethiopian government has also paved most of the highway leading from the Dallol site to the port in Tadjoura, which although belonging to Djibouti, serves as Ethiopia's main Indian Ocean port.

August 29, 2013

$GDX announces changes: Alamos, Detour, Franco-Nevada, Argonaut among main beneficiaries

The GDX announced the following changes. 
 
MAIN POSITIVES: Alamos, Detour, Fresnillo, Franco-Nevada, Argonaut, Alacer, Centerra, Hochschild, Centamin
 
MAIN NEGATIVES ( Deletions and re-weights): Tanzanian Royalty, Golden Star, Allied-Nevada and Vista Gold.  GoldFields, Harmony, NewGold, Aurico, Buenaventura and Royal Gold are being re-weighted down as well.
 
As expected, Torex and Pretium are not included as they are non producers yet.The details will be announced on Friday  sept 13th and will be EFFECTIVE of Friday sept 20th at the close.
 
Bloomberg
Name
Index Flow
Days of ADV
Type
Previous Conviction
AGI CN Equity
Alamos Gold Inc
+4.8  M
4.3
Addition
High
DGC CN Equity
Detour Gold Corp
+5.2  M
2.9
Addition
High
DPM CN Equity
Dundee Precious Metals Inc
+5.2  M
10.9
Addition
Medium
FNV US Equity
Franco-Nevada Corp
+5.6  M
4.2
Addition
High
AR CN Equity
Argonaut Gold Inc
+5.6  M
5.3
Addition
High
KOZAL TI Equity
Koza Altin Isletmeleri As
+5.7  M
7.6
Addition
Low
SBGL US Equity
Sibanye Gold- Spon Adr
+6.9  M
18.9
Addition
Medium
CG CN Equity
Centerra Gold Inc
+8.9  M
8.2
Addition
Medium
ASR CN Equity
Alacer Gold Corp
+10.8  M
8.6
Addition
High
MUX US Equity
Mcewen Mining Inc
+11.4  M
3.7
Addition
Medium
HOC LN Equity
Hochschild Mining Plc
+12.8  M
25.3
Addition
Low
POLY LN Equity
Polymetal International Plc
+14.7  M
12.4
Addition
Low
CGG CN Equity
China Gold International Res
+15.0  M
32.4
Addition
Low
ABG LN Equity
African Barrick Gold Plc
+15.5  M
9.7
Addition
Low
OSK CN Equity
Osisko Mining Corp
+16.5  M
3.4
Addition
High
RRL AU Equity
Regis Resources Ltd
+18.8  M
4.7
Addition
Medium
FRES LN Equity
Fresnillo Plc
+27.9  M
24.8
Addition
Low
NCM AU Equity
Newcrest Mining Ltd
+29.0  M
5.7
Addition
High
1818 HK Equity
Zhaojin Mining Industry - H
+33.1  M
3.1
Addition
Low
CEY LN Equity
Centamin Plc
+41.7  M
11.1
Addition
Medium
2899 HK Equity
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd-H
+226.2  M
4.6
Addition
Low
KGC US Equity
Kinross Gold Corp
(12.8 M)
0.6
Reweight
GFI US Equity
Gold Fields Ltd-Spons Adr
(26.1 M)
4.3
Reweight
BTG US Equity
B2Gold Corp
(27.2 M)
2.5
Reweight
EGO US Equity
Eldorado Gold Corp
(17.5 M)
1.4
Reweight
ABX US Equity
Barrick Gold Corp
(5.3 M)
0.2
Reweight
NGD US Equity
New Gold Inc
(19.2 M)
2.5
Reweight
GG US Equity
Goldcorp Inc
(4.5 M)
0.3
Reweight
HMY US Equity
Harmony Gold Mng-Spon Adr
(18.4 M)
5.5
Reweight
AUY US Equity
Yamana Gold Inc
(3.9 M)
0.2
Reweight
IAG US Equity
Iamgold Corp
(15.9 M)
1.1
Reweight
HL US Equity
Hecla Mining Co
(9.9 M)
1.5
Reweight
NEM US Equity
Newmont Mining Corp
(2.6 M)
0.3
Reweight
AU US Equity
Anglogold Ashanti-Spon Adr
(5.4 M)
1.4
Reweight
AUQ US Equity
Aurico Gold Inc
(10.5 M)
2.5
Reweight
BVN US Equity
Cia De Minas Buenaventur-Adr
(8.2 M)
4.0
Reweight
SLW US Equity
Silver Wheaton Corp
(2.3 M)
0.3
Reweight
PAAS US Equity
Pan American Silver Corp
(6.4 M)
2.0
Reweight
AEM US Equity
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd
(4.3 M)
1.3
Reweight
AG US Equity
First Majestic Silver Corp
(5.0 M)
2.3
Reweight
CDE US Equity
Coeur Mining Inc
(4.3 M)
2.3
Reweight
SSRI US Equity
Silver Standard Resources
(3.4 M)
2.0
Reweight
RGLD US Equity
Royal Gold Inc
(2.7 M)
2.9
Reweight
GOLD US Equity
Randgold Resources Ltd-Adr
(1.3 M)
1.3
Reweight
SA US Equity
Seabridge Gold Inc
(3.7 M)
4.5
Delete
Medium
GSS US Equity
Golden Star Resources Ltd
(20.8 M)
7.4
Delete
High
ANV US Equity
Allied Nevada Gold Corp
(8.3 M)
1.3
Delete
High
TRX US Equity
Tanzanian Royalty Exploratio
(8.1 M)
13.2
Delete
High
VGZ US Equity
Vista Gold Corp
(6.5 M)
9.6
Delete
High
 
 
 
Names that were not added and our previous conviction
Not Added
Conviction
TXG CN Equity
High
PGIL LN Equity
Low
TAHO US Equity
Low
NG CN Equity
Low
PVG CN Equity
Low
SVM US Equity
Medium